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Trade linkages and growth in Latin America: A time-varying SVAR approach

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  • Winkelried, Diego

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Saldarriaga, Miguel

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

This paper examines how shocks originated in large economies around the globe have transmitted to the growth rates of Latin American countries. For this purpose, a highly parsimonious structural VAR model – identified through bilateral trade linkages – is proposed, tested, estimated and simulated. Since trade weights evolve through time, the effect of shocks are time-varying. Thus, we are able to quantify how growth in the region has been affected by tighter trading linkages with fast-growing emerging economies, and how it has responded to a new world trade structure, featuring China as a major player. It is found that about half of the vigourous growth reported in Latin American countries by the end of the 2000s can be attributed to (direct and especially indirect) multiplier effects induced by the spectacular growth of the Chinese economy over the same period.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkelried, Diego & Saldarriaga, Miguel, 2012. "Trade linkages and growth in Latin America: A time-varying SVAR approach," Working Papers 2012-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2012-011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessandro Rebucci & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & TengTeng Xu, 2012. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-75, January.
    2. Mutl, Jan, 2009. "Consistent Estimation of Global VAR Models," Economics Series 234, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    3. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    4. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2004. "Quarterly real GDP estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a forecast evaluation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 431-447.
    5. Diego Winkelried, 2014. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1181-1196, June.
    6. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output‐Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, May.
    7. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Latin America; China; trade linkages; time-varying structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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