Trade linkages and growth in Latin America: A time-varying SVAR approach
This paper examines how shocks originated in large economies around the globe have transmitted to the growth rates of Latin American countries. For this purpose, a highly parsimonious structural VAR model – identified through bilateral trade linkages – is proposed, tested, estimated and simulated. Since trade weights evolve through time, the effect of shocks are time-varying. Thus, we are able to quantify how growth in the region has been affected by tighter trading linkages with fast-growing emerging economies, and how it has responded to a new world trade structure, featuring China as a major player. It is found that about half of the vigourous growth reported in Latin American countries by the end of the 2000s can be attributed to (direct and especially indirect) multiplier effects induced by the spectacular growth of the Chinese economy over the same period.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2012|
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- Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001.
"Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia,"
NBER Working Papers
8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci & TengTeng Xu, 2011.
"China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America,"
IDB Publications (Working Papers)
44738, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Alessandro Rebucci & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & TengTeng Xu, 2012. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
- Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Rebucci, Alessandro & Xu, TengTeng, 2011. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," IZA Discussion Papers 5889, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci & TengTeng Xu, 2011. "China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4732, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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- Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci & TengTeng Xu, 2012. "China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Working Papers 12-32, Bank of Canada.
- Mutl, Jan, 2009. "Consistent Estimation of Global VAR Models," Economics Series 234, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Tilak Abeysinghe & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2003.
"Quarterly Real GDP Estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a Forecast Evaluation,"
Departmental Working Papers
wp0404, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
- Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2004. "Quarterly real GDP estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a forecast evaluation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 431-447.
- Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November.
- Diego Winkelried, 2014.
"Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru,"
Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1181-1196, June.
- Winkelried, Diego, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru," Working Papers 2011-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
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