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Socios comerciales y crecimiento en América Latina


  • Diego Winkelried Quezada

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Miguel Ángel Saldarriaga

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)


Este trabajo evalúa cómo choques originados en grandes economías alrededor del mundo se han trasmitido a las tasas de crecimiento de países latinoamericanos. Para ello se propone, calcula, evalúa y simula un modelo VAR estructural bastante parsimonioso, identificado a través de vínculos de comercio bilaterales. Dado que los pesos de comercio evolucionan a lo largo de la muestra, los efectos de los choques son cambiantes con el tiempo. Por tanto, es posible cuantificar cómo el crecimiento de la región se ha visto afectado por vínculos comerciales más estrechos con economías emergentes de rápido crecimiento, y cómo ha respondido a una nueva estructura de comercio mundial, con China como protagonista. Se encuentra que cerca de la mitad del vigoroso crecimiento registrado en América Latina a finales de la década del 2000 puede ser atribuida a multiplicadores (directos y principalmente indirectos) inducidos por el espectacular crecimiento de la economía china durante el mismo periodo

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Winkelried Quezada & Miguel Ángel Saldarriaga, 2012. "Socios comerciales y crecimiento en América Latina," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2012, July-Dece.
  • Handle: RePEc:cml:prodgz:prg2012

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Alessandro Rebucci & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & TengTeng Xu, 2012. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-75, January.
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    More about this item


    América Latina; China; VAR estructural;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models


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