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Workers' Flows and Real Wage Cyclicality

  • Anabela Carneiro
  • Pedro Portugal

This study investigates real wage cyclicality in Portugal for the years of 1986-98, addressing the heterogeneity in wages responses to aggregate labor market conditions for workers' hirings and separations. The results exhibit a moderate procyclical behavior of real wages for continuously employed workers, in particular, for job stayers. For workers' accessions a strongly procyclical behavior in wages was observed, which is consistent with the idea that entry wages are much more procyclical than current wages. This empirical evidence suggests that even micro-data estimates of real wage cyclicality may conceal a strong procyclical wage behavior, when heterogeneity on wages responses to aggregate conditions between employed workers and hirings and separations is not taken into account.

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File URL: http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/WP200409.pdf
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Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w200409.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200409
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  1. Thomas J. Sargent, 1978. "Estimation of dynamic labor demand schedules under rational expectations," Staff Report 27, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Barlevy, Gadi, 2001. "Why Are the Wages of Job Changers So Procyclical?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(4), pages 837-78, October.
  3. Sumner, Scott & Silver, Stephen, 1989. "Real Wages, Employment, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 706-20, June.
  4. Yash Mehra, 1982. "Real Wages and Employment: Evidence from Disaggregated Data," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 191-196, Jul-Sep.
  5. A Brandolini, 1993. "In Search of a Stylised Fact: Do Real Wages Exhibit a Consistent Pattern of Cyclical Variability?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0112, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Chirinko, Robert S, 1980. "The Real Wage Rate over the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 459-61, August.
  7. Darren Grant, 2001. "A Comparison of the Cyclical Behavior of Union and Nonunion Wages in the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(1), pages 31-57.
  8. Meghir, Costas & Whitehouse, Edward, 1996. "The Evolution of Wages in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, January.
  9. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert & Runkle, David, 1988. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Estimating the Impact of Heterogeneity with Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1232-66, December.
  10. Burda, Michael C., 1985. "New evidence on real wage-employment correlations from U.S. manufacturing data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 283-285.
  11. Rosen, Sherwin, 1985. "Implicit Contracts: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 1144-75, September.
  12. Paul J. Devereux, 2001. "The Cyclicality of real wages within employer-employee matches," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 54(4), pages 835-850, July.
  13. José Varejão & Pedro Portugal, 2003. "Why do Firms Use Fixed-Term Contracts?," Working Papers w200308, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  14. Bils, Mark J, 1985. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 666-89, August.
  15. Beaudry, Paul & DiNardo, John, 1991. "The Effect of Implicit Contracts on the Movement of Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 665-88, August.
  16. Raisian, John, 1983. "Contracts, Job Experience, and Cyclical Labor Market Adjustments," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(2), pages 152-70, April.
  17. Neftci, Salih N, 1978. "A Time-Series Analysis of the Real Wages-Employment Relationship," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 281-91, April.
  18. Tatom, John A, 1980. "The "Problem" of Procyclical Real Wages and Productivity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 385-94, April.
  19. Solon, Gary & Barsky, Robert & Parker, Jonathan A, 1994. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important Is Composition Bias?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 1-25, February.
  20. James P. Ziliak & Beth A. Wilson & Joe A. Stone, 1999. "Spatial Dynamics And Heterogeneity In The Cyclicality Of Real Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 227-236, May.
  21. Shin, Donggyun, 1994. "Cyclicality of real wages among young men," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 137-142, October.
  22. Leandro Arozamena & Mário Centeno, 2001. "Tenure, Business Cycle and the Wage-Setting Process," Working Papers w200108, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  23. Arthur M. Okun, 1973. "Upward Mobility in a High-Pressure Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 207-262.
  24. Ronald G. Bodkin, 1969. "Real Wages and Cyclical Variations in Employment: A Re-Examination of the Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 2(3), pages 353-374, August.
  25. Otani, Ichiro, 1978. "Real Wages and Business Cycles Revisited," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 301-04, May.
  26. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 82-93, March.
  27. Richard Blundell & Howard Reed & Thomas Stoker, 1999. "Interpreting aggregate wage growth," IFS Working Papers W99/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  28. Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1215-1264, September.
  29. Geary, Patrick T & Kennan, John, 1982. "The Employment-Real Wage Relationship: An International Study," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 854-71, August.
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