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Why Are The Wages of Job Stayers Procyclical?

  • Donggyun Shin
  • Kwanho Shin

This paper explains how real wages are procyclical for those who stay with the same employer. On the basis of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data for the period of 1974-75 to 1990-91, we find that the substantial wage procyclicality among job stayers is mostly accounted for by great wage adjustments during the period when the unemployment rate reaches a historical minimum level from the start of the employee's current job. This finding explains how the real wages of job stayers behave asymmetrically over the cycle and more importantly how the evidence of stayers' great wage procyclicality accords with the theoretical prediction of implicit contracts that stresses costless mobility.

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File URL: http://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2003/DP0573.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University in its series ISER Discussion Paper with number 0573.

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Date of creation: Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0573
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  8. Jacobson, Louis S & LaLonde, Robert J & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1993. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 685-709, September.
  9. McDonald, J.T. & Worswick, C., 1997. "Wages, Implicit Contracts and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Canadian Micro Data," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 588, The University of Melbourne.
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  17. Joseph G. Altonji & Nicolas Williams, 1997. "Do Wages Rise with Job Seniority? A Reassessment," NBER Working Papers 6010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. McLaughlin, Kenneth J., 1994. "Rigid wages?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 383-414, December.
  19. Shin, Donggyun, 1994. "Cyclicality of real wages among young men," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 137-142, October.
  20. Carrington, William J & McCue, Kristin & Pierce, Brooks, 1996. "The Role of Employer-Employee Interactions in Labor Market Cycles: Evidence from the Self-Employed," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(4), pages 571-602, October.
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  23. Hoyt Bleakley & Ann E. Ferris & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "New data on worker flows during business cycles," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 49-76.
  24. Bils, Mark J, 1985. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 666-89, August.
  25. Wayne Vroman, 1977. "Worker Upgrading and the Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1), pages 229-252.
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