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New Evidence On Real Wage Cyclicality Within Employer-Employee Matches

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  • Donggyun Shin
  • Gary Solon

Abstract

In the most thorough study to date on wage cyclicality among job stayers, Devereux%u2019s (2001) analysis of men in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics produced two puzzling findings: (1) the real wages of salaried workers are noncyclical, and (2) wage cyclicality among hourly workers differs between two alternative wage measures. We examine these puzzles with additional evidence from other sources. Devereux%u2019s finding of noncyclical real wages among salaried job stayers is not replicated in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. The NLSY data, however, do corroborate his finding of a discrepancy for hourly workers between the cyclicality of the two alternative wage measures. Evidence from the PSID Validation Study contradicts Devereux%u2019s conjecture that the discrepancy might be due to a procyclical bias from measurement error in average hourly earnings. Evidence from the Bureau of Labor Statistics establishment survey supports his hypothesis that overtime work accounts for part (but not all) of the discrepancy. We conclude that job stayers%u2019 real average hourly earnings are substantially procyclical and that an important portion of that procyclicality probably is due to compensation beyond base wages.
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Suggested Citation

  • Donggyun Shin & Gary Solon, 2007. "New Evidence On Real Wage Cyclicality Within Employer-Employee Matches," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(5), pages 648-660, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:54:y:2007:i:5:p:648-660
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shin, Donggyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2008. "Why Are The Wages Of Job Stayers Procyclical?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(01), pages 1-21, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael W. Elsby & Donggyun Shin & Gary Solon, 2013. "Wage Adjustment in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 19478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. María Cervini-Plá & Antonia López-Villavicencio & José Ignacio Silva, 2015. "The heterogeneous cyclicality of income and wages among the distribution," Working Papers halshs-01133823, HAL.
    3. Pedro S. Martins, 2007. "Heterogeneity In Real Wage Cyclicality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(5), pages 684-698, November.
    4. Hermann Gartner & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2013. "Wage Cyclicality Under Different Regimes of Industrial Relations," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 516-540, April.
    5. Michael W. L. Elsby & Donggyun Shin & Gary Solon, 2016. "Wage Adjustment in the Great Recession and Other Downturns: Evidence from the United States and Great Britain," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 249-291.
    6. Silke Anger, 2007. "The Cyclicality of Effective Wages within Employer-Employee Matches: Evidence from German Panel Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 719, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Olivei, Giovanni & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2010. "Wage-setting patterns and monetary policy: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 785-802, October.
    8. Ch. Pissarides., 2011. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
    9. Haefke, Christian & Sonntag, Marcus & van Rens, Thijs, 2013. "Wage rigidity and job creation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 887-899.
    10. Michael Reiter, 2006. "Embodied technical change and the fluctuations of wages and unemployment," Economics Working Papers 980, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Peng, Fei & Siebert, W. Stanley, 2007. "Real Wage Cyclicality in Germany and the UK: New Results Using Panel Data," IZA Discussion Papers 2688, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    12. Grace Weishi Gu & Eswar Prasad, 2018. "New Evidence on Cyclical Variation in Labor Costs in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 24266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Luis Eduardo Arango & Nataly Obando & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2011. "Los salarios reales a lo largo del ciclo económico en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 666, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Peng, Fei & Kang, Lili, 2013. "Cyclical changes in the wage structure of the United Kingdom: a historical review of the GHS 1972-2002," MPRA Paper 47210, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Lili Kang & Fei Peng, 2017. "Wage flexibility in the Chinese labour market, 1989–2009," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(4), pages 616-628, April.
    16. Kuroda, Sachiko, 2010. "Do Japanese Work Shorter Hours than before? Measuring trends in market work and leisure using 1976-2006 Japanese time-use survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 481-502, December.
    17. Shin Donggyun, 2012. "Cyclicality of Real Wages in Korea," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    18. Fei Peng & W. Stanley Siebert, 2008. "Real Wage Cyclicality in Italy," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(4), pages 569-591, December.
    19. Hart, Robert A., 2008. "Piece work pay and hourly pay over the cycle," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 1006-1022, October.
    20. Marczak, Martyna & Gómez, Víctor, 2015. "Cyclicality of real wages in the USA and Germany: New insights from wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 40-52.
    21. Paula Garda & Volker Ziemann, 2014. "Economic Policies and Microeconomic Stability: A Literature Review and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1115, OECD Publishing.
    22. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Kimmel, Jean, 2005. "Moonlighting Behavior over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 1671, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    23. André Cieplinski, 2017. "Employee Control, Work Content and Wages," Department of Economics University of Siena 775, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    24. Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2015. "Trend Dominance in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Studies in Economics 1518, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    25. Pedro S. Martins & Gary Solon & Jonathan Thomas, 2010. "Measuring What Employers Really Do about Entry Wages over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 15767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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