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Forecasting Income Inequality with Demographic Projections

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  • Chong, Terence Tai Leung
  • Ka, Yiu Tung

Abstract

This paper provides a first attempt in the literature to forecast the future evolution of income inequality with the demographic projections. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we establish a framework to quantify and analyze the effects of population ageing and the secular upward trend in educational attainment on income inequality. Second, we modify the human capital model and perform microsimulations to forecast a list of standard measures of income inequality of Hong Kong for the coming years of 2021, 2026 and 2031 based on the projected changes in the demographic structure of Hong Kong’s working population. The pseudo out-of-sample forecasts are reasonably close to the corresponding realized values. Our true out-of-sample forecasts suggest that income disparity will be alleviated in the next 15 years, as a result of the increasingly equal spread of level of schooling across the workforce.

Suggested Citation

  • Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Ka, Yiu Tung, 2019. "Forecasting Income Inequality with Demographic Projections," MPRA Paper 99160, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income Inequality; Demographic Projections; Population Ageing.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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