IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/93139.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Simulation of the Impacts of Value-Added-Tax Increases on Welfare and Poverty in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Nguyen, Cuong

Abstract

This study predicts the impact of increasing VAT on household welfare as measured by the average expenditure and poverty rate in Viet Nam. We forecast the impact of two scenarios of increasing VAT. Scenario 1 is to increase VAT by 1.2 times, i.e. increasing 5% VAT and 10% VAT to 6% and 12% VAT, respectively. Scenario 2 applies a common rate of 10% on all items, i.e., commodities subject to 5% tax can be taxed by a 10% rate. The results show that Scenario 1 has a stronger impact on households compared to Scenario 2. In particular, Scenario 1 reduces households' expenditure by 0.89%, while Scenario 2 decreases households’ expenditure by 0.32%. Under Scenario 1, the poverty rate is increased by 0.26 percentage points, while under Scenario 2, the poverty rate is increased by 0.22 percentage points. The number of poor people increases approximately by 240 and 202 thousand people in Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Regarding the impact on poverty, VAT only affects the near poor households. Better-off households are also affected, but this effect does not cause them fall into poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Cuong, 2017. "Simulation of the Impacts of Value-Added-Tax Increases on Welfare and Poverty in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 93139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93139
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/93139/1/MPRA_paper_93139.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnold C. Harberger, 1962. "The Incidence of the Corporation Income Tax," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 215-215.
    2. Salanié, Bernard, 2011. "The Economics of Taxation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262016346, December.
    3. Emran, M. Shahe & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2005. "On selective indirect tax reform in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 599-623, April.
    4. Deaton, Angus, 1988. "Quality, Quantity, and Spatial Variation of Price," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 418-430, June.
    5. Brita Bye & Birger Strøm & Turid Åvitsland, 2012. "Welfare effects of VAT reforms: a general equilibrium analysis," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 368-392, June.
    6. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yaru, Mohammed Aminu & Adisa-Ohiaka, Ubaydah, 2022. "Indirect Taxation and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Empirical Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(5), December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Noriko Amano, 2018. "Nutrition Inequality: The Role of Prices, Income, and Preferences," 2018 Meeting Papers 453, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Biondi, Beatrice & Cornelsen, Laura & Mazzocchi, Mario & Smith, Richard, 2020. "Between preferences and references: Asymmetric price elasticities and the simulation of fiscal policies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 108-128.
    3. Cash, Sean B. & Goddard, Ellen W., 2006. "New Directions in Consumer Behaviour Research," CAFRI: Current Agriculture, Food and Resource Issues, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society, issue 7, pages 1-10, August.
    4. Porto, Guido G., 2015. "Estimating household responses to trade reforms: Net consumers and net producers in rural Mexico," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 116-142.
    5. Capacci, Sara & Leucci, Anna Caterina & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2018. "There is no such thing as a (gluten-)free lunch: Higher food prices and the cost for coeliac consumers," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 84-91.
    6. Andrej Cupák & Peter Tóth, 2017. "Measuring the Efficiency of VAT reforms: Evidence from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 6/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    7. Mabel Andalon & John Gibson, 2017. "The 'Soda Tax' is Unlikely to Make Mexicans Lighter: New Evidence on Biases in Elasticities of Demand for Soda," Working Papers in Economics 17/07, University of Waikato.
    8. Hoang, Hoa & Meyers, William H., 2015. "Rice demand in Vietnam: Dietary changes and implications for policy," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196621, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. John Gibson & Bonggeun Kim, 2013. "Testing Hicksian Separability Over Space," Working Papers in Economics 13/07, University of Waikato.
    10. Dominik Sachs & Aleh Tsyvinski & Nicolas Werquin, 2020. "Nonlinear Tax Incidence and Optimal Taxation in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 469-493, March.
    11. Lanie, Tomgouani, 2019. "Estimation des élasticités de demande des produits alimentaires au Togo," Économie rurale, French Society of Rural Economics (SFER Société Française d'Economie Rurale), vol. 369(July-Sept).
    12. Gilles Quentin Kane & Gwladys Laure Mabah Tene & Jean-Joël Ambagna & Isabelle Piot-Lepetit & Fondo Sikod, 2015. "The impact of food price volatility on consumer welfare in Cameroon," Working Papers hal-02801351, HAL.
    13. Echeverría, Lucía & Molina, José Alberto, 2021. "Poor vs Non-Poor Households in Uruguay: Welfare Differences from Food Price Changes," GLO Discussion Paper Series 890, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    14. Sugata Marjit & Sattwik Santra & Koushik Kumar Hati, 2018. "Status Seeking Behavior of the Poor: A Study on India," CESifo Working Paper Series 7213, CESifo.
    15. Alban Elshani & Leke Pula, 2023. "Impact of Taxes on Economic Growth: An Empirical Study in the Eurozone," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 24-41.
    16. Nakelse, Tebila & Dalton, Timothy J. & Hendricks, Nathan P. & Hodjo, Manzamasso, 2018. "Are smallholder farmers better or worse off from an increase in the international price of cereals?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 213-223.
    17. Yuqing Zheng & Chen Zhen & Daniel Dench & James M. Nonnemaker, 2017. "U.S. Demand for Tobacco Products in a System Framework," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1086, August.
    18. Zhai, Tianchang & Li, Lei & Wang, Jingjing & Si, Wei, 2022. "Will the consumption tax on sugar-sweetened beverages help promote healthy beverage consumption? Evidence from urban China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Fabrice Etilé & Anurag Sharma, 2015. "Do High Consumers of Sugar‐Sweetened Beverages Respond Differently to Price Changes? A Finite Mixture IV‐Tobit Approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(9), pages 1147-1163, September.
    20. Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke & Chukwuemeka Chinonso Emenekwe & Mark Umunna Amadi & Jane Onuabuchi Munonye & Chukwudi Loveday Njoku & Chibuzo Uzoma Izuogua, 2020. "Demand analysis of rice in Nigeria: application of quadratic almost ideal demand system model," Asian Journal of Agriculture and rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(1), pages 364-378, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value added tax; simulation; poverty; household expenditure; Vietnam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.