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Welfare impact of external balance in pakistan: CGE-microsimulation analysis

Author

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  • Ahmed, Vaqar
  • O' Donoghue, Cathal

Abstract

This paper studies the welfare impact of changes in the external balance of a developing economy (Pakistan). We explain that the economic growth achieved during the past decade is highly dependent on the improvements in external balance. After 2001, Pakistan has benefited from, an increase in the inflow of remittances, foreign assistance from bilateral and multilateral sources, and a relatively stable exchange rate. This was complimented by growth in the real sector. The GDP grew at an average of 7 percent from 2002 to 2007. During the same time period the growth in per-capita income was around 13 percent in dollar terms. This performance however has come under pressure due to the rising inflation, slowing down of global economy and external price shocks. The increase in import price of petroleum, raw materials and other manufactured goods has the potential of reducing the growth performance, impacting the competitiveness of the economy and thereby threatening the gains achieved during the past seven years in reducing the poverty levels. We study using a CGE-microsimulation model the effects of changes in import prices faced by Pakistan. Also provided in the simulation exercise is an analysis of increase in foreign savings that are usually prescribed for developing economies in order to augment the domestic savings and channelling investment towards developments in infrastructure and social sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Vaqar & O' Donoghue, Cathal, 2008. "Welfare impact of external balance in pakistan: CGE-microsimulation analysis," MPRA Paper 9267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9267
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9267/1/MPRA_paper_9267.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Dorosh, Paul & Niazi, Muhammad Khan, 2006. "Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan, 2001-02: Methodology and Results," MPRA Paper 2242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Gilbert & Nilanjan Banik, 2012. "Socio-economic impacts of regional transport infrastructure in South Asia," Chapters,in: Infrastructure for Asian Connectivity, chapter 5, pages 139-163 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. John Gilbert & Nilanjan Banik, 2010. "Socioeconomic Impacts of Cross- Border Transport Infrastructure Development in South Asia," Development Economics Working Papers 21803, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Arshad Ali Bhatti & Zakia Batool & Hasnain A. Naqvi, 2015. "Fiscal Policy and Its Role in Reducing Income Inequality- A CGE Analysis for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 843-864.
    4. John Gilbert, 2008. "Trade Policy, Poverty, and Income Distribution in CGE Models: An Application to SAFTA," Working Papers 2008-02, Utah State University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Dec 2008.
    5. Ahmed, Vaqar & Wahab Siddiqui, Abdul, 2010. "Nexus between aid and security: the case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 29310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ahmed, Vaqar & Sugiyarto, Guntur & Jha, Shikha, 2010. "Remittances and Household Welfare: A Case Study of Pakistan," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 194, Asian Development Bank.
    7. Acharya, Sanjaya & Hölscher, Jens & Perugini, Cristiano, 2012. "Trade liberalisation and inequalities in Nepal: A CGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2543-2557.
    8. Birouke Tefera & Frehiwot Worku & Zewdu Ayalew, 2012. "Implications of Oil Price Shocks and Subsidizing Oil Prices to the Ethiopian Economy: A CGE Analysis," Working Papers 008, Ethiopian Development Research Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium Model; Microsimulation; Balance of Payments; Economic Growth; Poverty; Inequality; Pakistan;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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