Determinantes del Desempleo en la República Dominicana: Dinámica Temporal y Microsimulaciones[Determinants of Unemployment in the Dominican Republic: Temporal Dynamics and Microsimulations]

The present paper studies the dynamics of unemployment determinants and their influence on aggregate well-being, using micro-data from the ENFT and a Logit model combined with micro-simulation techniques. The results confirm that the unemployment probability of the economically active people is determined by their particular characteristics (gender, age, geographical location, schooling, income, among others) and their domestic and work environment, although the effect of these conditions differs in function of their gender, life cycle, territory and the current economic context. On the supply side, there is an important segmentation of the labor market, which, according to the microsimulations, prevents a vulnerable population from taking advantage of the expansive movements of the labor market and makes them prone to unemployment in recessive conjunctures. Estimates indicate that women and young people face greater probabilities of unemployment and sensitivity to the economic cycle, especially when they come from lower income households, dragging these conditions throughout their life cycle, although with age reduces the propensity to unemployment; In addition, show that schooling affects simultaneously labor participation and the probability of unemployment, observing higher schooling, higher labor participation and lower probabilities of unemployment, although it is shown that higher schooling promotes some propensity to unemployment, derived from higher wage expectations and Market imbalances; Geographically, estimates find territorial divergences and evidence in favor of the unemployment hypothesis as an urban phenomenon; With respect to the domestic environment, identify an important "intergenerational" effect derived from the conditions of the household head, and show that individual domestic responsibilities affect asymmetrically from the sex of the people, promoting that women face greater difficulties in reconciling them with the job. On the demand side, they show that people in the primary sector face greater probabilities of unemployment, which promotes their intersectoral displacement; While the incidence of informality in the propensity to unemployment was shown to affect women more significantly, although their effect on the territory differed.