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Evaluación de los efectos de las políticas de exportación y de productividad en la distribución del ingreso a partir de microsimulaciones

  • Carlos Foronda Rojas


    (Centro de Generación de Información y Estadísticas, Universidad Privada Boliviana)

En este trabajo se emplean modelos de elección discretos y la técnica de microsimulaciones para estudiar el efecto de shocks o perturbaciones sobre la distribución del ingreso de los hogares. Se utiliza esta metodología para evaluar los efectos ex-post de políticas de comercio exterior y productivas sobre el ingreso de las personas a partir de dos ejercicios de simulación. En el primer ejercicio se consideran eventuales efectos de la destrucción de empleos relacionados con el sector exportador (no ampliación del ATPDEA). Los resultados obtenidos muestran que se incrementa considerablemente la pobreza y, marginalmente, la desigualdad. En el segundo ejercicio se simula una política que permita mayores empleos exportadores (ampliación del ATPDEA y conquista de nuevos mercados), acompañada de un incremento de la productividad en el sector agrícola. Los resultados muestran que esta combinación de políticas permite reducir significativamente la pobreza y la desigualdad.

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Paper provided by Universidad Privada Boliviana in its series Investigación & Desarrollo with number 0206.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2006
Date of revision: Mar 2006
Publication status: Published in Investigación & Desarrollo, March 2006, pages 41-60
Handle: RePEc:iad:wpaper:0206
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  5. Leonardo Gasparini & Mariana Marchionni & Federico Gutierrez, 2004. "Simulating Income Distribution Changes in Bolivia: a Microeconometric Approach," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0012, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  6. Gonzalvez, M. & Menendez, A., 2000. "The Effect of Unemployment on Labor Earnings Inequality: Argentina in the Nineties," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
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