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Resilience to crisis and GDP recovery at county level in Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Zaman, Gheorghe
  • Georgescu, George

Abstract

The paper focuses on the issue of regional resilience against the recent financial and economic crisis in the case of Romania, taking the county as territorial unit of observation. Based on the idea that the shock of a crisis impact spreads asymmetrically in the territory, with different contagion effects, the study advance a new approach of the speed and duration of GDP decline recovering. Data analysis showed that, at macroeconomic level, Romania has not proved resilient to the crisis impact, after two years of recession and a recovery period of 4 years succeeding barely in 2014 to return to the GDP level achieved in 2008. The research highlighted the differentiated recovery duration of the economic decline in territory, in 2014 many counties having to recover in the coming years remained GDP gaps, up to 10 pp or even more. The study paid a specific attention to the crisis impact on employment, focusing on R&D sector as revealing the endogenous growth generating potential at county level.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2015. "Resilience to crisis and GDP recovery at county level in Romania," MPRA Paper 63246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63246
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63246/1/MPRA_paper_63246.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Rolf Pendall & Kathryn A. Foster & Margaret Cowell, 2009. "Resilience and regions: building understanding of the metaphor," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 3(1), pages 71-84.
    4. Gordon Cordina, 2004. "Economic Vulnerability And Economic Growth: Some Results From A Neo-Classical Growth Modelling Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2), pages 21-39, December.
    5. Robert F. Martin & Teyanna Munyan & Beth Anne Wilson, 2014. "Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?," IFDP Notes 2014-11-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Gheorghe ZAMAN & Valentina VASILE, 2014. "Conceptual framework of economic resilience and vulnerability,at national and regional levels," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 39(2(48)), pages 5-18, December.
    7. Wolfgang Schäuble, 2012. "Doctor Honoris Causa," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 34(3), pages 381-385, September.
    8. Antonescu, Daniela, 2013. "The Regional Development Policy of Romania in the Post-Accession Period," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 131209, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    9. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    10. Antonescu, Daniela, 2013. "The Regional Development Policy of Romania in the Post-Accession Period," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 131209, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    11. Zaman Gheorghe & Georgescu George, 2009. "The Impact Of Global Crisis On Romania'S Economic Development," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(11), pages 1-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zaman, Gheorghe & Antonescu, Daniela, 2015. "Endogenous regional growth and foreign trade, in Romania," MPRA Paper 64678, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Daniela Antonescu, 2015. "Theoretical Approaches Of Endogenosu Regional Development," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 75-82, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global crisis; regional economic resilience; economic decline recovery; employment; knowledge-based re-industrialization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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