IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/50649.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Vieillissement démographique, longévité et épargne. Le cas du Maroc
[Ageing population, longevity and save. The case of Morocco]

Author

Listed:
  • Loumrhari, Ghizlan

Abstract

In this paper we investigate empirically the relationship between population aging begins in Morocco and private savings. To do this, we use an overlapping generations model (OLG) and annual data from 1980 to 2010. Econometric estimates show that if the increase in the dependency ratio negatively affects the growth rate of savings, as predicted by the lifecycle theory, longevity to the contrary tends to stimulate the same savings. However, it seems that the first effect outweighs the second. Economic policies to promote private savings and incentives for households to have more children are needed to meet the challenge of severe aging population which will face Morocco in the coming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Loumrhari, Ghizlan, 2013. "Vieillissement démographique, longévité et épargne. Le cas du Maroc [Ageing population, longevity and save. The case of Morocco]," MPRA Paper 50649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50649
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50649/1/MPRA_paper_50649.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kelley, Allen C & Schmidt, Robert M, 1996. "Saving, Dependency and Development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386, November.
    2. Adams, Nassau A, 1971. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 472-475, June.
    3. Ram, Rati, 1982. "Dependency Rates and Aggregate Savings: A New International Cross-Section Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 537-544, June.
    4. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    6. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 97-130, March.
    7. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.
    8. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.
    9. repec:eme:ijsepp:v:39:y:2012:i:11:p:591-605 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Heijdra, Ben J. & Romp, Ward E., 2009. "Retirement, pensions, and ageing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 586-604, April.
    11. Philipp C. Rother & Marco Catenaro & Gerhard Schwab, 2004. "Aging and Pensions in the Euro Area," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(4), pages 593-593, December.
    12. Robert M. Schmidt & Allen C. Kelley, 1996. "Saving, dependency and development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386.
    13. Gupta, Kanhaya L, 1971. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 469-471, June.
    14. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Alexander Herman & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2014. "World Saving," IMF Working Papers 2014/204, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Benjamin Wong & Kam Ki Tang, 2013. "Do ageing economies save less? Evidence from OECD data," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(6), pages 591-605, May.
    16. Benjamin Wong & Kam Ki Tang, 2013. "Do ageing economies save less? Evidence from OECD data," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 591-605, May.
    17. Mr. Tim Callen & Mr. Christian Thimann, 1997. "Empirical Determinants of Household Saving: Evidence From OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 1997/181, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Cardenas, Mauricio & Escobar, Andres, 1998. "Saving determinants in Colombia: 1925-1994," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 5-44, October.
    19. Berg, Lennart, 1996. "Age Distribution, Saving and Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1996:22, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    20. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    21. Heikki Oksanen, 2009. "Saving in an ageing society with public pensions: implications from lifecycle analysis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 370, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    22. Ram, Rati, 1984. "Dependency Rates and Savings: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 234-237, March.
    23. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2007. "A Survey of Household Saving Behavior in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0684, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    24. Mohamed Bouzahzah & Frédéric Docquier & Oliver Paddison, 2002. "Retraites, croissance et inégalités en présence d'individus myopes," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 155(4), pages 31-44.
    25. Li, Hongbin & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 138-154, September.
    26. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-896, December.
    27. Virginie Coudert, 1990. "Les disparités internationales de comportements d'épargne," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 232(1), pages 49-67.
    28. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
    29. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1973. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates: Further Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(1), pages 232-233, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghizlan Loumrhari, 2014. "Ageing, Longevity and Savings: The Case of Morocco," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 344-352.
    2. Pascual-Saez, Marta & Cantarero-Prieto, David & Pires Manso, José R., 2020. "Does population ageing affect savings in Europe?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 291-306.
    3. Neha Jain & Srinivas Goli, 2022. "Demographic change and private savings in India," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 1-29, June.
    4. Li, Hongbin & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 138-154, September.
    5. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2021. "A revisit to effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in Asia," MPRA Paper 110609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jain, Neha & Goli, Srinivas, 2021. "Demographic Change and Private Savings in India," SocArXiv n73ab, Center for Open Science.
    7. Diane Macunovich, 1999. "The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns of Consumptions and Savings in the United States?," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 7, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    8. Kam-Ki Tang & Benjamin ShiJie Wong, "undated". "The Ageing, Longevity and Crowding Out Effects on Private and Public Savings: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Analysis," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3409, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. Zafar Iqbal, 1993. "Institutional Variations in Saving Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1293-1311.
    10. Esso, Loesse Jacques, 2009. "La dépendance démographique est-elle un obstacle à l’épargne et à la croissance en Côte d’Ivoire?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(4), pages 361-382, décembre.
    11. Elwin Tobing, 2012. "Demography and cross-country differences in savings rates: a new approach and evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 963-987, July.
    12. Rosa Aisa & Fernando Pueyo, 2013. "Population aging, health care, and growth: a comment on the effects of capital accumulation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1285-1301, October.
    13. Aylit T. Romm & Martha Wolny, 2012. "The Impact of Later Retirement Ages on Aggregate Household Savings and Saving Rates: An Analysis of OECD Countries," Working Papers 269, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    14. Johan Fourie, 2012. "The wealth of the Cape Colony: Measurements from probate inventories," Working Papers 268, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    15. Miguel Sánchez-Romero, 2013. "The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1347-1377, October.
    16. Gemma Estrada & Donghyun Park & Arief Ramayandi, 2012. "Population aging and aggregate consumption in developing Asia," Chapters, in: Donghyun Park & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, chapter 4, pages 111-129, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Ni Lar & Sereyvuth Ky, 2021. "Revisiting the effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in Asia: a panel vector‐autoregressive approach with a saving channel," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(2), pages 77-94, November.
    18. Roger Kelly & George Mavrotas, 2003. "Financial Sector Development - Futile or Fruitful? An Examination of the Determinants of Savings in Sri Lanka," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2003-14, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Latjin, Mirani, 2022. "The effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in EU economies: A panel vector autoregressive approach," MPRA Paper 113596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Nadeem A. Burney & Ashfaque H. Khan, 1992. "Socio-economic Characteristics and Household Savings: An Analysis of the Households' Saving Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 31-48.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population aging; private saving; OLG model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50649. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.