IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/actuec/0023.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La dépendance démographique est-elle un obstacle à l’épargne et à la croissance en Côte d’Ivoire?

Author

Listed:
  • Esso, Loesse Jacques

    (CES, Université Paris 1 – Panthéon-Sorbonne, École Nationale Supérieure de Statistique et d’Economie Appliquée (ENSEA), Côte d’Ivoire, Cellule d’Analyse de Politiques Economiques du CIRES (CAPEC), Côte d’Ivoire)

Abstract

This study analyses the empirical effects of age dependency on saving and economic growth of Cote d’Ivoire. Using data from the World Bank (2008) and the African Development Bank (2008) on Côte d’Ivoire between 1960 and 2007, we show through an error correction model that age dependency rates negatively impacts saving rates and GDP in the long run. In the short term, changes in dependency rate negatively influence changes in saving rates and the real GDP growth rate. However, causality tests show that age dependency does not cause savings or economic growth of Côte d’Ivoire. Résumé : Cette étude analyse empiriquement l’influence de la dépendance démographique sur l’épargne et la croissance en Côte d’Ivoire. En utilisant des données de la Banque mondiale (2008) et de la Banque africaine de développement (2008) sur la Côte d’Ivoire entre 1960 et 2007, nous montrons à partir d’une modélisation à correction d’erreur que la dépendance démographique influence négativement le taux d’épargne et le PIB à long terme. À court terme, les variations du ratio de dépendance démographique influencent négativement les variations du taux d’épargne et le taux de croissance du PIB réel. Cependant, les tests de causalité montrent que la dépendance démographique ne cause ni l’épargne ni la croissance économique de la Côte d’Ivoire.

Suggested Citation

  • Esso, Loesse Jacques, 2009. "La dépendance démographique est-elle un obstacle à l’épargne et à la croissance en Côte d’Ivoire?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(4), pages 361-382, décembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.erudit.org/revue/ae/2009/v85/n4/045069ar.html
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "Domestic Saving and Foreign Investment in Australia: A Granger Causality Test," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 79-87.
    2. Adams, Nassau A, 1971. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 472-475, June.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    5. Breyer, Friedrich & Craig, Ben, 1997. "Voting on social security: Evidence from OECD countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 705-724, December.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11855, December.
    8. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    9. Kwack, Sung Yeung & Lee, Young Sun, 2005. "What determines saving rates in Korea?: The role of demography," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 861-873, October.
    10. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 2005. "Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 275-300, June.
    11. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    12. Agrawal, Pradeep & Sahoo, Pravakar & Dash, Ranjan Kumar, 2009. "Savings behaviour in South Asia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 208-224.
    13. Gupta, Kanhaya L, 1971. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 469-471, June.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    15. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Phillip Swagel, 2002. "The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 900-918, August.
    16. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2002. "The political economy of social security: a survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, March.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    18. Mason, Andrew & Kinugasa, Tomoko, 2008. "East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-6), pages 389-399.
    19. Tabellini, Guido, 2000. " A Positive Theory of Social Security," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 523-545, June.
    20. Mosconi, Rocco & Giannini, Carlo, 1992. "Non-causality in Cointegrated Systems: Representation Estimation and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 399-417, August.
    21. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer.
    22. Guido Tabellini, 2000. "A Positive Theory of Social Security," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 523-545, September.
    23. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Toda, Hiro Y., 1993. "Limit Theory in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 150-153, January.
    24. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Peng, Xiujian, 2007. "Japan's fertility transition: Empirical evidence from the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 263-278, March.
    25. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    26. Li, Hongbin & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 138-154, September.
    27. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-896, December.
    28. Guest, Ross S., 2006. "Population ageing, capital mobility and optimal saving," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 89-102, January.
    29. Yamada, Hiroshi, 1998. "A note on the causality between export and productivity:: an empirical re-examination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 111-114, October.
    30. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
    31. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28241, December.
    32. Kumar Narayan, Paresh, 2005. "The relationship between saving and investment for Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 293-309, August.
    33. Alders, Peter & Broer, D. Peter, 2005. "Ageing, fertility, and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 1075-1095, June.
    34. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1973. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates: Further Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(1), pages 232-233, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kam-Ki Tang & Benjamin ShiJie Wong, "undated". "The Ageing, Longevity and Crowding Out Effects on Private and Public Savings: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Analysis," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3409, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    2. Pascual-Saez, Marta & Cantarero-Prieto, David & Pires Manso, José R., 2020. "Does population ageing affect savings in Europe?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 291-306.
    3. Loesse Esso, 2012. "Re-examining the saving-investment nexus: threshold cointegration and causality evidence from the ECOWAS," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 193-220, August.
    4. Saafi Sami & Farhat Abdeljelil & Haj Mohamed Meriem Bel, 2015. "Testing the relationships between shadow economy and unemployment: empirical evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 585-608, December.
    5. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2021. "A revisit to effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in Asia," MPRA Paper 110609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Esso, Loesse Jacques, 2010. "Threshold cointegration and causality relationship between energy use and growth in seven African countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1383-1391, November.
    7. Judith A. Giles & Sadaf Mirza, 1999. "Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality," Econometrics Working Papers 9914, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    8. Loumrhari, Ghizlan, 2013. "Vieillissement démographique, longévité et épargne. Le cas du Maroc [Ageing population, longevity and save. The case of Morocco]," MPRA Paper 50649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ghizlan Loumrhari, 2014. "Ageing, Longevity and Savings: The Case of Morocco," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 344-352.
    10. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
    11. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    12. Nour Wehbe & Bassam Assaf & Salem Darwich, 2018. "Étude de causalité entre la consommation d’électricité et la croissance économique au Liban," Post-Print hal-01944291, HAL.
    13. Catherine Bruneau & Eric Jondeau, 1999. "Long‐run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long‐term Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 545-568, November.
    14. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2016. "The Impact of Pre-marital Sex Ratios on Household Saving in Two Asian Countries: The Competitive Saving Motive Revisited," ISER Discussion Paper 0975, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    15. Gianko Michailidis & Concepció Patxot & Meritxell Solé, 2019. "Do pensions foster education? An empirical perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(38), pages 4127-4150, August.
    16. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    17. Jude Okechukwu Chukwu, 2013. "Budget Deficits, Money Growth and Price Level in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 468-477, December.
    18. Man-Keun Kim & Kangil Lee, 2015. "Dynamic Interactions between Carbon and Energy Prices in the U.S. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 494-501.
    19. Li, Hongbin & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 138-154, September.
    20. Paola Profeta, 2002. "Aging and Retirement: Evidence Across Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 9(6), pages 651-672, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Dostie (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/scseeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.