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La dépendance démographique est-elle un obstacle à l’épargne et à la croissance en Côte d’Ivoire?

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  • Esso, Loesse Jacques

    (CES, Université Paris 1 – Panthéon-Sorbonne, École Nationale Supérieure de Statistique et d’Economie Appliquée (ENSEA), Côte d’Ivoire, Cellule d’Analyse de Politiques Economiques du CIRES (CAPEC), Côte d’Ivoire)

Abstract

This study analyses the empirical effects of age dependency on saving and economic growth of Cote d’Ivoire. Using data from the World Bank (2008) and the African Development Bank (2008) on Côte d’Ivoire between 1960 and 2007, we show through an error correction model that age dependency rates negatively impacts saving rates and GDP in the long run. In the short term, changes in dependency rate negatively influence changes in saving rates and the real GDP growth rate. However, causality tests show that age dependency does not cause savings or economic growth of Côte d’Ivoire. Résumé : Cette étude analyse empiriquement l’influence de la dépendance démographique sur l’épargne et la croissance en Côte d’Ivoire. En utilisant des données de la Banque mondiale (2008) et de la Banque africaine de développement (2008) sur la Côte d’Ivoire entre 1960 et 2007, nous montrons à partir d’une modélisation à correction d’erreur que la dépendance démographique influence négativement le taux d’épargne et le PIB à long terme. À court terme, les variations du ratio de dépendance démographique influencent négativement les variations du taux d’épargne et le taux de croissance du PIB réel. Cependant, les tests de causalité montrent que la dépendance démographique ne cause ni l’épargne ni la croissance économique de la Côte d’Ivoire.

Suggested Citation

  • Esso, Loesse Jacques, 2009. "La dépendance démographique est-elle un obstacle à l’épargne et à la croissance en Côte d’Ivoire?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(4), pages 361-382, décembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0023
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