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Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe

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  • Khan, Muhammad
  • Kebewar, mazen
  • Nenovsky, Nikolay

Abstract

In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and Inflation targeting). The task of our study is to compare econometrically the performance of these two regimes in terms of the relationship between inflation, output growth, nominal and real uncertainties from 2000 till now. In other words, we test the hypothesis of non-neutrality of monetary and exchange rate regimes with respect to these connections. In a whole, the empirical results do not allow us to judge which monetary regime is more appropriate and reasonable to assume. EU enlargement is one of the possible explanations for the numbing of the differences and the lack of coherence between the two regimes in terms of inflation, growth and their uncertainties

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Muhammad & Kebewar, mazen & Nenovsky, Nikolay, 2013. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 45523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45523
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    Cited by:

    1. Carmen PINTILESCU & Mircea ASANDULUI & Elena-Daniela VIORICA & Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2016. "Investigation On The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainties In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 71-89, June.
    2. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2015. "Detection of Implicit Fluctuation Bands in The European Union Countries," Working Papers 15-09, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; inflation uncertainty; real uncertainty; monetary regimes; Eastern Europe;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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