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Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe

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  • Khan, Muhammad
  • Kebewar, Mazen
  • Nenovsky, Nikolay

Abstract

In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and Inflation targeting). The task of our study is to compare econometrically the performance of these two regimes in terms of the relationship between inflation, output growth, nominal and real uncertainties from 2000 till now. In other words, we test the hypothesis of non-neutrality of monetary and exchange rate regimes with respect to these connections. In a whole, the empirical results do not allow us to judge which monetary regime is more appropriate and reasonable to assume. EU enlargement is one of the possible explanations for the numbing of the differences and the lack of coherence between the two regimes in terms of inflation, growth and their uncertainties.

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  • Khan, Muhammad & Kebewar, Mazen & Nenovsky, Nikolay, 2013. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe," EconStor Preprints 73689, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:73689
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniela Viorica & Danut Jemna & Carmen Pintilescu & Mircea Asandului, 2014. "The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty. Empirical Evidence for the Newest EU Countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-11, March.
    2. Tsvetomir Tsvetkov & Sonya Georgieva, 2022. "Inflation, Inflation Instability and Nominal Uncertainty in Bulgarian Economy," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 41-64.
    3. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2018. "Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2015. "Detection of Implicit Fluctuation Bands in The European Union Countries," Working Papers 15-09, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    5. Riccardo Crescenzi & Mara Giua, 2016. "The EU Cohesion Policy in context: Does a bottom-up approach work in all regions?," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 48(11), pages 2340-2357, November.
    6. Carmen PINTILESCU & Mircea ASANDULUI & Elena-Daniela VIORICA & Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2016. "Investigation On The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainties In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 71-89, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Inflation uncertainty; Real uncertainty; Monetary regimes; Eastern Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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