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The Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Differential Relationship: Evidence from Two Financial Crises

  • Li, Kui-Wai
  • Wong, Douglas K T

This paper examines the contemporaneous and inter-temporal interaction between real exchange rate and real interest rate differential in the two financial crises of 1997 and 2008 by using data from thirteen countries from different world regions. The empirical result shows that negative contemporaneous relationship exists in most countries. In addition, there is little evidence on a systematic inter-temporal relationship between the real interest rate differential and the real exchange rate, and an absence of consistent result in supporting a negative relationship among the thirteen economies. An extremely low change in the conditional correlation between real interest rate differential and real exchange rates can be found in small countries.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35297.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35297
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  1. Robert Sollis & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "The real exchange rate-real interest rate relation: evidence from tests for symmetric and asymmetric threshold cointegration," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 139-153.
  2. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Cletus C. Coughlin & Kees G. Koedijk, 1990. "What do we know about the long-run real exchange rate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 36-48.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  5. Edison, Hali J. & Pauls, B. Dianne, 1993. "A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 165-187, April.
  6. Edison, Hali J & Melick, William R, 1999. "Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 93-111, April.
  7. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
  9. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Mathias Hoffmann & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials: a present value interpretation," IEW - Working Papers 404, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  11. Allan H. Meltzer, 2009. "Reflections on the Financial Crisis," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 29(1), pages 25-30, Winter.
  12. Anna J. Schwartz, 2009. "Origins of the Financial Market Crisis of 2008," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 29(1), pages 19-23, Winter.
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