The real exchange rate-real interest rate relation: evidence from tests for symmetric and asymmetric threshold cointegration
This paper investigates the existence of threshold cointegration between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. Unlike previous work, which generally fails to find evidence of a long-run relationship employing linear models, we employ tests of the null hypothesis of no cointegration derived from nonlinear bivariate models that allow for threshold cointegration under the alternative hypothesis. For six of the countries in our sample our analysis reveals some evidence of a nonlinear long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. Asymmetric mean reversion of the equilibrium error is found to be driven by the asymmetric short-run adjustment of the real exchange rate to dis-equilibrium. When threshold cointegration is found to exist, we find stronger mean reversion when the equilibrium error is negative relative to when it is positive. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 11 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://jws-edcv.wiley.com/jcatalog/JournalsCatalogOrder/JournalOrder?PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- O'Connell, P. G. J., 1998. "Market frictions and real exchange rates1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 71-95, February.
- Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "International real interest rate differentials, purchasing power parity and the behaviour of real exchange rates: the resolution of a conundrum," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 15-23.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1997.
"The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994.
"Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
- Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, . "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper 32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L, 2002.
"The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
- Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1983.
"Exchange rate dynamics with sluggish prices under alternative price- adjustment rules,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
223, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Sluggish Prices under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 159-74, February.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "Exchange Rate Dynamics With Sluggish Prices Under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules," NBER Working Papers 1173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Uppal, Raman, 1993. " A General Equilibrium Model of International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 529-53, June.
- Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, .
"Real Exchange Rates under the Recent Float: Unequivocal Evidence of Mean Reversion,"
Economics and Finance Discussion Papers
97-14, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1998. "Real exchange rates under the recent float: unequivocal evidence of mean reversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 131-137, August.
- Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988.
" Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-48, September.
- Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1998.
"Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1686-1706, November.
- Nelson Mark & Yangru Wu, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Working Papers 98-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
- James G. MacKinnon, 2010.
"Critical Values for Cointegration Tests,"
1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002.
"Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen/Seo paper on threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Al-Awad, Mouawiya & Grennes, Thomas J., 2002. "Real interest parity and transaction costs for the group of 10 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 363-372.
- Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
- Cletus C. Coughlin & Kees G. Koedijk, 1990. "What do we know about the long-run real exchange rate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 36-48.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:11:y:2006:i:2:p:139-153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.