IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/117520.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Innovation, Public Debt and Monetization: an Empirical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • D'Andrea, Sara

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between public debt and technological innovation through panel threshold regressions on a sample of 15 industrialized countries from 2000 to 2019. It also asks what impact debt monetization (expressed as the amount of debt held at the central bank) has on this nexus. Our results show strong nonlinearities in the sense that an increase in debt above a certain threshold negatively impacts the rate of innovation, while below it has positive effects. Monetizing debt contributes positively to innovation if it is below the "debt turning point", while this becomes detrimental for debt-to-GDP ratios above the threshold. The same inverted-U-shaped relationship is found between the monetization rate and innovation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • D'Andrea, Sara, 2023. "Innovation, Public Debt and Monetization: an Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 117520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:117520
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/117520/1/manuscript_empirical_2ndversion.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Croce, M.M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S. & Schmid, L., 2019. "Government debt and the returns to innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 205-225.
    2. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    3. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    5. Qunyong Wang, 2015. "Fixed-effect panel threshold model using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 15(1), pages 121-134, March.
    6. Philipp Heimberger, 2021. "Do Higher Public Debt Levels Reduce Economic Growth?," wiiw Working Papers 211, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    7. Carvelli, Gianni & Trecroci, Carmine, 2021. "Is government debt good or bad for labor productivity? A dynamic panel analysis over 1972-2019," MPRA Paper 108314, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Alexandru Minea & Antoine Parent, 2012. "Is High Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth? Reinhart and Rogoff and some complex nonlinearities," Working Papers 12-08, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    9. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    10. António Afonso & João Tovar-Valles, 2011. "Economic Performance and Government Size," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/21, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    11. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    12. Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Philipp Rother, 2011. "The Impact of Government Debt on Growth. An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1015-1029.
    13. Ana Carolina Garriga, 2016. "Central Bank Independence in the World: A New Data Set," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 849-868, October.
    14. Tito Cordella & Luca Antonio Ricci & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2010. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 1-24, April.
    15. Kourtellos, Andros & Stengos, Thanasis & Tan, Chih Ming, 2013. "The effect of public debt on growth in multiple regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 35-43.
    16. Chien-Yu Huang & Juin-Jen Chang & Lei Ji, 2021. "Inflation, market structure, and innovation-driven growth with distinct cash constraints," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 1270-1303.
    17. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    18. Ferraro, Domenico & Peretto, Pietro F., 2020. "Innovation-led growth in a time of debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Serkan Arslanalp & Takahiro Tsuda, 2014. "Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(3), pages 430-464, August.
    20. S M Ali Abbas & Jakob E Christensen, 2010. "The Role of Domestic Debt Markets in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Low-Income Countries and Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 209-255, April.
    21. Bettina Bökemeier & Christiane Clemens, 2016. "Does it Pay to Fulfill the Maastricht Convergence Criteria? - Reflections on the Public Debt and Growth Nexus for Selected European Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 6161, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D'Andrea, Sara, 2022. "A Meta-Analysis on the Debt-Growth Relationship," MPRA Paper 114409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    3. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    4. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.
    5. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    6. Balẳ Égert, 2015. "The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3756-3770, July.
    7. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2015. "Government Debt and Economic Growth: Estimating the Debt Thresholds and Debt Intolerance," MPRA Paper 63694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mustafa Koroglu, 2019. "Growth and Debt: An Endogenous Smooth Coefficient Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, February.
    9. Shahrzad Ghourchian & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2020. "Government consumption, government debt and economic growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 589-605, May.
    10. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    11. Dimitrios Asteriou & Keith Pilbeam & Cecilia Eny Pratiwi, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth: panel data evidence for Asian countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 270-287, April.
    12. Grobéty, Mathieu, 2018. "Government debt and growth: The role of liquidity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-22.
    13. Balazs Egert, 2013. "The 90% Public Debt Threshold: The Rise & Fall of a Stylised Fact," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1048, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    14. Séverine MENGUY, 2019. "Does public indebtedness constrain or can it favor economic growth? A simple analytical modeling," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 1-29.
    15. Ntita Ntita, Jean Christophe & Kazadi Ntita, Franck & Ntanga Ntita, Jean de Dieu, 2020. "Analyse de la non-linéarité entre la dette publique extérieure et croissance économique dans les pays de la Communauté des Économique États de l’Afrique Centrale « CEEAC » [Analysis of the non-line," MPRA Paper 100652, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2020.
    16. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2015. "The Dynamics of Government Debt and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 63693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    18. Mara Leticia Rojas & María María Ibáñez Martín & Carlos Dabús, 2023. "Is Debt Always Harmful for Economic Growth? Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 292, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    19. Janice Boucher Breuer & John McDermott, 2019. "Debt And Depression," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 714-730, October.
    20. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "The ‘other half’ of the public debt–economic growth relationship: a note on Reinhart and Rogoff," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 20-28, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Innovation; Debt monetization; Panel threshold regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:117520. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.