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Currency Crisis Transmission through International Trade

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  • Haidar, Jamal Ibrahim

Abstract

The Eurozone recent crisis has shown how balance of payments problems in less developed European Monetary Union (EMU) member countries can affect EMU trading partners, spreading the crisis to a larger group of countries. This paper introduces a three-country dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze whether and how terms of trade effects can generate a spillover effect or a currency crisis transmission between countries. Specifically, using a two period model, it incorporates world market clearing conditions for tradables into a new theoretic model, analyzes net capital flow movements between countries, and establishes cross-border macroeconomic linkages. This paper shows how a currency crisis can transmit through the real (trade) sector channel; presents how changes in a foreign country's capital flow condition can influence home country's exchange rate through the change in terms of trade; mathematically proves that the significance of the real sector channel between two countries is positively associated with their trade levels; offers a new trade-related explanation for the occurrence of currency crises between countries; and describes how capital movement between two countries can lead to a currency crisis in one of these countries and in a third country.

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  • Haidar, Jamal Ibrahim, 2012. "Currency Crisis Transmission through International Trade," MPRA Paper 112122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:112122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xianhua Wu & Yingying Wang & Lingjuan Yang & Shunfeng Song & Guo Wei & Ji Guo, 2016. "Impact of political dispute on international trade based on an international trade Inoperability Input-Output Model: A case study of the 2012 Diaoyu Islands Dispute," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 47-70, February.
    2. Cheng, Wenli & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2016. "How might the South be helped by Northern technology yet harmed by Northern money?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 83-91.
    3. Raghavan, Mala & Devadason, Evelyn S, 2019. "How resilient is ASEAN-5 to trade shocks? Regional and global shocks compared," Working Papers 2019-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    4. Marina Yu. Malkina & Anton O. Ovcharov, 2022. "Financial Contagion of Russian Companies from the Oil Market under the Influence of Sanctions and Pandemic Shock," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 4, pages 8-28, August.
    5. Gani, Azmat & Al Mawali, Nasser Rashid, 2013. "Oman's trade and opportunities of integration with the Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 766-774.
    6. Santana-Gallego, Maria & Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V., 2019. "International trade, exchange rate regimes, and financial crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 85-95.
    7. Mala Raghavan & Faisal Khan & Sonia Kumari Selvarajan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2023. "Cross‐country linkages between ASEAN and non‐ASEAN‐RCEP member states: A global VAR analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1782-1814, June.
    8. Pawan Kumar & Vipul Kumar Singh, 2023. "Examining the Time Varying Spillover Dynamics of Indian Financial Indictors from Global and Local Economic Uncertainty," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 99-121, March.
    9. Mala Raghavan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2020. "How Resilient Is ASEAN-5 to Trade Shocks? A Comparison of Regional and Global Shocks," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(1), pages 93-115, January.
    10. Jiang, Hai & Tang, Shenfeng & Li, Lifang & Xu, Fangming & Di, Qian, 2022. "Re-examining the Contagion Channels of Global Financial Crises: Evidence from the Twelve Years since the US Subprime Crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Shen, Pei-Long & Li, Wen & Wang, Xiao-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei, 2015. "Contagion effect of the European financial crisis on China's stock markets: Interdependence and pure contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 193-199.
    12. Chen, Zhihua & An, Haizhong & An, Feng & Guan, Qing & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Structural risk evaluation of global gas trade by a network-based dynamics simulation model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 457-471.
    13. Dungey, Mardi & Khan, Faisal & Raghavan, Mala, 2018. "International trade and the transmission of shocks: The case of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 109-121.
    14. Jamal Ibrahim Haidar, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Risk in the Eurozone," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 13(1), pages 123-136, January.
    15. Khan, Saleheen, 2018. "Currency Crisis Transmission Through Trade Channel: Asian and Mexican Crises Revisited," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(4), pages 818-840.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade; general equilibrium model; currency crisis; contagion; capital flows; and exchange rate movement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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