IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Aluminium market and the macroeconomy

  • Melisso Boschi
  • Luca Pieroni

We propose and test a structural model of the interaction between the aluminium market and the macroeconomy incorporating the rational expectations hypothesis. Based on a competition à la Cournot, our model predicts that aluminium spot price and inventories will respond to macroeconomic shocks to line up supply to the demand level. The model also includes incomplete adjustments to shocks that occur near the delivery date of futures contracts with the implication of a likely high persistence in the aluminium spot price. Estimation results show that the aluminium price is significantly affected by the real exchange rate, while the influence of the real interest rate is small. We argue that this result is largely expected once we consider the peculiar features of the aluminium market. Further support to this view is provided by the large persistence of the aluminium price response to its own shock and by the negligible contribution of stockholdings innovations to the price forecast error variance. Finally, macroeconomic shocks explain on the whole a relevant share of the aluminium market variables forecast error variance.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ec.unipg.it/DEFS/uploads/quaderno42web.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia in its series Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica with number 42/2008.

as
in new window

Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pia:wpaper:42/2008
Contact details of provider: Postal: via Pascoli, 20 - 06123 Perugia
Phone: +39 075 5855279
Fax: +39 075 5855299
Web page: http://www.econ.unipg.it/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-84, September.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1995. "Financial Markets and Monetary Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061740, June.
  4. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23, January.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2006. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 12713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2003. "A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity-Exporters: Peg the Export Price ("PEP")," Working Paper Series rwp03-003, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  7. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
  8. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 2002. "A Model of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Working Papers 2002-19, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2005. "Peg the export price index: A proposed monetary regime for small countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 495-508, June.
  10. Ioannidis, Christos & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2008. "The impact of monetary policy on stock prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53.
  11. Roy Bailey and Marcus Chambers, . "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Economics Discussion Papers 432, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  12. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: an empirical framework," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Inventories and the short-run dynamics of commodity prices," Working papers 3133-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  14. Powell, Andrew, 1993. "Trading Forward in an Imperfect Market: The Case of Electricity in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(417), pages 444-53, March.
  15. NG, Serena & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 1997. "Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices," Cahiers de recherche 9709, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  16. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  17. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  18. Luca Pieroni & Matteo Ricciarelli, 2005. "Testing rational expectations in primary commodity markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(15), pages 1705-1718.
  19. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1995. "Modelling Market Fundamentals: A Model of the Aluminum Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 385-410, Oct.-Dec..
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pia:wpaper:42/2008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Davide Castellani)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.