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Aluminium market and the macroeconomy

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  • Boschi, Melisso
  • Pieroni, Luca

Abstract

We propose a structural model of the interaction between the aluminium market and the macroeconomy incorporating the rational expectations hypothesis. Based on a competition à la Cournot, our model predicts that aluminium spot price and inventories will respond to macroeconomic shocks to line up supply to the demand level. The model also includes incomplete adjustments to shocks that occur near the delivery date of futures contracts with the implication of a likely high persistence in the aluminium spot price. Estimation results show that the influence of the real exchange rate and the real interest rate on the aluminium price, though statistically significant, is small. We argue that this result is largely expected once we consider the peculiar features of the aluminium market. Further support to this view is provided by the large persistence of the aluminium price response to its own shock and by the negligible contribution of stockholdings innovations to the price forecast error variance.

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  • Boschi, Melisso & Pieroni, Luca, 2009. "Aluminium market and the macroeconomy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-207.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:2:p:189-207
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Metal commodities Monetary transmission mechanism Rational expectations hypothesis test SVAR;

    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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