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Decoding China’s Industrial Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Hanming Fang

    (University of Pennsylvania and NBER)

  • Ming Li

    (Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Guangli Lu

    (Chinese University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

We decode China’s industrial policies from 2000 to 2022 by employing large language models (LLMs) to extract and analyze rich information from a comprehensive dataset of 3 million documents issued by central, provincial, and municipal governments. Through careful prompt engineering, multistage extraction and refinement, and rigorous verification, we use LLMs to classify the industrial policy documents and extract structured information on policy objectives, targeted industries, policy tones (supportive or regulatory/suppressive), policy tools, implementation mechanisms, and intergovernmental relationships, etc. Combining these newly constructed industrial policy data with micro-level firm data, we document four sets of facts about China’s industrial policy that explore the following questions: What are the economic and political foundations of the targeted industries? What policy tools are deployed? How do policy tools vary across different levels of government and regions, as well as over the phases of an industry’s development? What are the impacts of these policies on firm behavior, including entry, production, and productivity growth? We also explore the political economy of industrial policy, focusing on top-down transmission mechanisms, policy persistence, and policy diffusion across regions. Finally, we document spatial inefficiencies and industry-wide overcapacity as potential downsides of industrial policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanming Fang & Ming Li & Guangli Lu, 2025. "Decoding China’s Industrial Policies," PIER Working Paper Archive 25-012, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:25-012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Large Language Models; Industrial Policy; Policy Diffusion; Revealed Comparative Advantage; Overcapacity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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