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The Covered Interest Parity Puzzle and the Evolution of the Japan Premium

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  • Alexis Stenfors

    (University of Portsmouth)

Abstract

A disturbance or breakdown of the first stage of the monetary transmission mechanism tends to be synonymous with high and volatile money market risk premia. Such market indicators include violations of the covered interest parity (CIP). This was not only evident during the financial crisis of 2007-08, but already during the Japanese banking crisis in the late 1990s, when it became referred to as the 'Japan Premium'. Despite extraordinary policy measures by central banks in recent years, however, deviations from the CIP indicate continuing or even elevated stress in the international monetary system. This paper examines a string of distinct, but closely interconnected, assumptions and perceptions regarding CIP arbitrage. By doing so, it not only sheds some fresh light on the recent 'CIP puzzle' but also on the era of the Japan Premium during the 1990s and its aftermath.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexis Stenfors, 2018. "The Covered Interest Parity Puzzle and the Evolution of the Japan Premium," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2018-10, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2018-10
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    File URL: http://repec.port.ac.uk/EconFinance/PBSEconFin_2018_10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S., 2001. "Determinants of the Japan premium: actions speak louder than words," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 283-305, April.
    2. Stenfors, Alexis, 2018. "Bid-ask spread determination in the FX swap market: Competition, collusion or a convention?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 78-97.
    3. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "From turmoil to crisis: Dislocations in the FX swap market before and after the failure of Lehman Brothers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1350-1374, December.
    4. Vladyslav Sushko & Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2016. "The failure of covered interest parity: FX hedging demand and costly balance sheets," BIS Working Papers 590, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Victoria Ivashina & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(3), pages 1241-1281.
    6. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017. "Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage," BIS Working Papers 651, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Ito, Takatoshi & Harada, Kimie, 2004. "Credit Derivatives Premium as a New Japan Premium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 965-968, October.
    8. David Woo & Akihiro Kanaya, 2000. "The Japanese Banking Crisis of the 1990's; Sources and Lessons," IMF Working Papers 00/7, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Alexis Stenfors, 2014. "LIBOR as a Keynesian Beauty Contest: A Process of Endogenous Deception," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 392-407, July.
    10. Frey, Bruno S., 1988. "Political economy and institutional choice," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 349-366.
    11. Stenfors, Alexis, 2014. "LIBOR deception and central bank forward (mis-)guidance: Evidence from Norway during 2007–2011," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 452-472.
    12. Tomoyuki Iida & Takeshi Kimura & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Regulatory Reforms and the Dollar Funding of Global Banks: Evidence from the Impact of Monetary Policy Divergence," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    13. repec:mes:jeciss:v:52:y:2018:i:2:p:387-395 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    arbitrage; covered interest parity; financial crisis; FX swap market; Japan Premium; money market;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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