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LIBOR as a Keynesian Beauty Contest: A Process of Endogenous Deception

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  • Alexis Stenfors

Abstract

This paper uses the Keynesian Beauty Contest as a theoretical framework to analyse the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) fixing mechanism, where the actual money market rate is seen as a fundamental value towards which the LIBOR should aim. By treating the LIBOR as the outcome of a particular kind of p-beauty contest game, in which players (LIBOR banks) are guided by higher order beliefs, a process is created whereby they are not solely dependent on their own incentives and constraints. Instead, potential deception is generated endogenously though the fixing process itself, resulting in systematic deviations of the LIBOR from its fundamental value.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexis Stenfors, 2014. "LIBOR as a Keynesian Beauty Contest: A Process of Endogenous Deception," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 392-407, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:26:y:2014:i:3:p:392-407
    DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2014.917824
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antoni Bosch-Domènech & José G. Montalvo & Rosemarie Nagel & Albert Satorra, 2002. "One, Two, (Three), Infinity, ...: Newspaper and Lab Beauty-Contest Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1687-1701, December.
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    1. Alexis Stenfors, 2019. "The Covered Interest Parity Puzzle and the Evolution of the Japan Premium," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 417-424, April.
    2. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2020. "From CIP-deviations to a market for risk premia: A dynamic investigation of cross-currency basis swaps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Stenfors, Alexis, 2018. "Bid-ask spread determination in the FX swap market: Competition, collusion or a convention?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 78-97.
    5. Peter Norberg, 2018. "Bankers Bashing Back: Amoral CSR Justifications," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 401-418, January.
    6. Lorenzo Esposito & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, "undated". "In the Long Run We Are All Herd: On the Nature and Outcomes of the Beauty Contest," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_972, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Alexis Stenfors & Lilian Muchimba, 2023. "The Transmission Mechanism of Stress in the International Banking System," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2023-03, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.

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