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Valuation of an R&D project with three types of uncertainty

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  • Michi Nishihara

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

Abstract

This paper develops an R&D decision-making model in the real options framework. The model is generic enough to capture three types of uncertainty in an R&D project, namely, uncertainty of research duration and costs, market value of technology, and a competitor fs technology development. I derive analytical solutions, which help practitioners and researchers to evaluate various cases of R&D investment. Further, by analyzing the model with a wide range of parameter values, I reveal the following effects of the three types of uncertainty on R&D investment: Higher uncertainty of research duration and costs, unlike market value uncertainty, speeds up investment, especially combined with a higher risk of competition. The investment timing can be U-shaped in the strength of competition because of the trade-off between the preemptive investment effect and the decreased project value effect. These results can account for empirical findings about the uncertainty-investment relation in industries with high R&D intensity and severe competition.

Suggested Citation

  • Michi Nishihara, 2017. "Valuation of an R&D project with three types of uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-15, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:1715
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital budgeting; Decision analysis; Risk; R&D; Real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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