Valuation of sequential R&D investment under technological, market, and rival preemption uncertainty
We develop a real options model for evaluating and optimizing an R&D project. The model can capture key features of R&D, including research duration, growth opportunity, debt financing, and uncertainty of technological, demand market, and rival preemption. Nevertheless, it is computationally tractable and thus helps practitioners to evaluate various cases of R&D investment. Further, by analyzing the model with a wide range of parameter values, we unveil the interactions of key R&D features. The effect of duration on investment depends on whether there is a possibility of rival preemption. Higher uncertainty of research duration speeds up project inception in the presence of rival preemption. Higher uncertainty of technological success, combined with a growth opportunity embedded in the R&D project, accelerates investment. Debt financing can greatly decrease time lag between the first stage project and growth project. These results are consistent with the empirical evidence.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michi NISHIHARA & Takashi SHIBATA, 2012.
"The effects of external financing costs on investment timing and sizing decisions,"
Discussion Papers in Economics and Business
12-07, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
- Nishihara, Michi & Shibata, Takashi, 2013. "The effects of external financing costs on investment timing and sizing decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1160-1175.
- Weeds, Helen, 2002.
"Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 729-47, July.
- Helen Weeds, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
- Weeds, H., 2000. "Strategic Delay in a Real Optimna Model of R&D Competition," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 576, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Goldstein, Robert & Ju, Nengjiu & Leland, Hayne, 2001. "An EBIT-Based Model of Dynamic Capital Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(4), pages 483-512, October.
- Ariel Pakes & Mark Schankerman, 1984. "The Rate of Obsolescence of Patents, Research Gestation Lags, and the Private Rate of Return to Research Resources," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 73-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hartmann, Marcus & Hassan, Ali, 2006. "Application of real options analysis for pharmaceutical R&D project valuation--Empirical results from a survey," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 343-354, April.
- Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1998. "A model of sequential investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 437-463, March.
- Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-22, June.
- Cassimon, D. & De Backer, M. & Engelen, P.J. & Van Wouwe, M. & Yordanov, V., 2011. "Incorporating technical risk in compound real option models to value a pharmaceutical R&D licensing opportunity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1200-1216.
- Driver, Ciaran & Temple, Paul & Urga, Giovanni, 2008. "Real options -- delay vs. pre-emption: Do industrial characteristics matter?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-545, March.
- Suresh Sundaresan & Neng Wang, 2007. "Investment under Uncertainty with Strategic Debt Service," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 256-261, May.
- Fan, Hua & Sundaresan, Suresh M, 2000. "Debt Valuation, Renegotiation, and Optimal Dividend Policy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(4), pages 1057-99.
- Christopher A. Hennessy, 2004. "Tobin's "Q", Debt Overhang, and Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1717-1742, 08.
- Guthrie, Graeme, 2009. "Real Options in Theory and Practice," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195380637, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:1413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Atsuko SUZUKI)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.