Is the Time-Series Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects Contaminated by Publication Bias?
Publication bias in economics may lead to selective specification searches that result in overreporting in the published literature of results consistent with economists' priors. In reassessing the published time-series studies on the employment effects of minimum wages, some recent research has reported evidence consistent with publication bias, and concluded that the most plausible explanation of this evidence is editors' and authors' tendencies to look for negative and statistically significant estimates of the employment effect of the minimum wage, (Card and Krueger, 1995a, p. 242). We present results indicating that the evidence is more consistent with a change in the estimated minimum wage effect over time than with publication bias. More generally, we demonstrate that existing approaches to testing for publication bias may generate spurious evidence of such bias when there are structural changes in some parameters. We then suggest an alternative strategy for testing for publication bias that is more immune to structural change. Although changing parameters may be uncommon in clinical trials on which most of the existing literature on publication bias is based, they are much more plausible in economics.
|Date of creation:||Jun 1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Economic Inquiry, Vol. 36, no. 3 (July 1998): 458-470|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1981.
"Minimum Wages and the Demand for Labor,"
NBER Working Papers
0656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Brown & Curtis Gilroy & Andrew Kohen, 1983.
"Time-Series Evidence of the Effect of the Minimum Wage on Youth Employment and Unemployment,"
Journal of Human Resources,
University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(1), pages 3-31.
- Charles Brown & Curtis Gilroy & Andrew Kohen, 1981. "Time-Series Evidence of the Effect of the Minimum Wage on Youth Employment and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 0790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brown, Charles & Gilroy, Curtis & Kohen, Andrew, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 487-528, June.
- Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1994.
"Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 184-200, May.
- Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Siskind, Frederic B, 1977. "Minimum Wage Legislation in the United States: Comment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(1), pages 135-38, January.
- Welch, Finis, 1974. "Minimum Wage Legislation in the United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 285-318, September.
- Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Time-Series Minimum-Wage Studies: A Meta-analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 238-43, May.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Gary Solon, 1985. "The Minimum Wage and Teenage Employment: A Reanalysis with Attention to Serial Correlation and Seasonality," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 20(2), pages 292-297.
- De Long, J Bradford & Lang, Kevin, 1992.
"Are All Economic Hypotheses False?,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1257-72, December.
- David Neumark & William Wascher, 1994. "Minimum Wage Effects and Low-Wage Labor Markets: A Disequilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 4617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5631. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.