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Is the Time-Series Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects Contaminated by Publication Bias?

  • Neumark, David
  • Wascher, William

Existing meta-analysis approaches to testing for publication bias are problematic when applied to time-series studies in economics because changes in parameters can generate spurious evidence of publication bias. The authors suggest an alternative test in such contexts and apply it to time-series studies of the effects of minimum wages on employment. In contrast to recent research by David Card and Alan B. Krueger (1995), they find that the results of published time-series studies of minimum wage effects are consistent with structural change and that the null hypothesis of no publication bias is not rejected by the evidence. Copyright 1998 by Oxford University Press.

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Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 36 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 458-70

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:36:y:1998:i:3:p:458-70
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  1. David Neumark & William Wascher, 1994. "Minimum Wage Effects and Low-Wage Labor Markets: A Disequilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 4617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors," NBER Technical Working Papers 0165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Siskind, Frederic B, 1977. "Minimum Wage Legislation in the United States: Comment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(1), pages 135-38, January.
  4. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1981. "Minimum Wages and the Demand for Labor," NBER Working Papers 0656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Charles Brown & Curtis Gilroy & Andrew Kohen, 1983. "Time-Series Evidence of the Effect of the Minimum Wage on Youth Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(1), pages 3-31.
  6. De Long, J Bradford & Lang, Kevin, 1992. "Are All Economic Hypotheses False?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1257-72, December.
  7. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Time-Series Minimum-Wage Studies: A Meta-analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 238-43, May.
  8. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  9. Gary Solon, 1985. "The Minimum Wage and Teenage Employment: A Reanalysis with Attention to Serial Correlation and Seasonality," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 20(2), pages 292-297.
  10. Brown, Charles & Gilroy, Curtis & Kohen, Andrew, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 487-528, June.
  11. Welch, Finis, 1974. "Minimum Wage Legislation in the United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 285-318, September.
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