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CBDCs, Payment Firms, and Geopolitics

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  • Tobias Berg
  • Jan Keil
  • Felix Martini
  • Manju Puri

Abstract

We analyze the effect of a major central bank digital currency (CBDC) – the digital euro – on the payment industry to find remarkably heterogeneous effects. Stock prices of U.S. payment firms decrease, while stock prices of European payment firms increase in response to positive announcements on the digital euro. Bank stocks do not react. We estimate a loss in market capitalization of USD 127 billion for U.S. payment firms, vis-à-vis a gain of USD 23 billion for European payment firms. Our results emphasize the medium-of-exchange function of CBDCs and point to a novel geopolitical dimension of CBDCs: enhanced autonomy in payments.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Berg & Jan Keil & Felix Martini & Manju Puri, 2024. "CBDCs, Payment Firms, and Geopolitics," NBER Working Papers 32857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32857
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dirk Niepelt, 2025. "Central Bank Digital Currency and Monetary Architecture," Diskussionsschriften dp2509, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other

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