IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/29534.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Health and Education on Labor Force Participation in Aging Societies – Projections for the United States and Germany from a Dynamic Microsimulation

Author

Listed:
  • René Böheim
  • Thomas Horvath
  • Thomas Leoni
  • Martin Spielauer

Abstract

Using a highly stylized dynamic microsimulation model, we project the labor force of the United States up to the year 2060 and contrast these projections with projections for Germany to assess differential effects on outcomes The projections are consistent with the U S Census Bureau’s and Eurostat’s demographic projections. Our modeling approach allows to show and quantify how policy changes the future size of the labor force, which we assess with a series of what-if scenarios. Both the US and Germany are expected to undergo demographic aging, but their demographic fundamentals differ starkly. This has strong implications for their labor force developments. According to our microsimulation, the US labor force will, despite population aging, increase by 16.2 percent in the age groups 15 to 74 (corresponding to 25.2 million workers) between 2020 and 2060, while Germany will experience a decline by 10.7 percent (4.4 million workers). In these baseline projections, improvements in the education structure will add about two million persons to the US labor force and about half a million persons to the German labor force by 2060. In the what-if scenarios, we examine the implications of improvements in the educational structure of the population and of policies which address the health impediments for labor force participation. Of the educational scenarios that we evaluate, increasing the number of persons who achieve more than lower education has the strongest positive impact on labor force participation, relative to the number of additional years of schooling implied by the various scenarios. Shifting people from intermediate to higher education levels also increases labor force participation in higher age groups, however, this is partially offset by lock in effects at younger ages. Our projections highlight that improvements in the labor market integration of people with health limitations provide a particularly promising avenue to increase labor force participation rates and thus help to address the challenges posed by demographic aging. If the health gap in participation rates in the United States were similar to that currently observed in Sweden, the labor force in 2060 would be larger by about 14.9 million persons.

Suggested Citation

  • René Böheim & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer, 2021. "The Impact of Health and Education on Labor Force Participation in Aging Societies – Projections for the United States and Germany from a Dynamic Microsimulation," NBER Working Papers 29534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29534
    Note: AG EH
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w29534.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francisco Perez‐Arce & María J. Prados, 2021. "The Decline In The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 615-652, April.
    2. Daniela Del Boca, 2002. "The effect of child care and part time opportunities on participation and fertility decisions in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 549-573.
    3. James Browne & Herwig Immervoll, 2017. "Mechanics of replacing benefit systems with a basic income: comparative results from a microsimulation approach," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 15(4), pages 325-344, December.
    4. Ben Baumberg Geiger & René Böheim & Thomas Leoni, 2018. "The growing American health penalty: International trends in the employment of older workers with poor health," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp271, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    5. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, March.
    6. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    7. James Poterba & Steven Venti & David A. Wise, 2013. "Health, Education, and the Postretirement Evolution of Household Assets," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(4), pages 297-339.
    8. Michael Grossman, 2015. "The Relationship between Health and Schooling: What’s New?," NBER Working Papers 21609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Guillaume MAROIS & Patrick SABOURIN & Alain BÉLANGER, 2019. "Forecasting Human Capital of EU Member Countries Accounting for Sociocultural Determinants," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 231-269, September.
    10. Pierre Koning & Maarten Lindeboom, 2015. "The Rise and Fall of Disability Insurance Enrollment in the Netherlands," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 151-172, Spring.
    11. Eide, Eric R. & Showalter, Mark H., 2011. "Estimating the relation between health and education: What do we know and what do we need to know?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 778-791, October.
    12. Jennifer Van Hook & Alain Bélanger & Patrick Sabourin & Anne Morse, 2020. "Immigration Selection and the Educational Composition of the US Labor Force," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(2), pages 321-346, June.
    13. Adriaan Kalwij & Frederic Vermeulen, 2008. "Health and labour force participation of older people in Europe: What do objective health indicators add to the analysis?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 619-638, May.
    14. Cutler, David M. & Lleras-Muney, Adriana, 2010. "Understanding differences in health behaviors by education," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-28, January.
    15. Folbre, Nancy, 1994. "Children as Public Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 86-90, May.
    16. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling and Earnings," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 41-63, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Courtney C. Coile, 2018. "Working Longer in the United States: Trends and Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Working Longer, pages 299-324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Johannes Amann & René Böheim & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer, 2021. "The microWELT-US Microsimulation Model for Projections of the US Labour Force Participation Accounting for Education and Health. Technical Report," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67943, Juni.
    19. Petter Lundborg, 2013. "The health returns to schooling—what can we learn from twins?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 673-701, April.
    20. Philip Hemmings & Christopher Prinz, 2020. "Sickness and disability systems: comparing outcomes and policies in Norway with those in Sweden, the Netherlands and Switzerland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1601, OECD Publishing.
    21. Marois, Guillaume & Sabourin, Patrick & Bélanger, Alain, 2019. "Forecasting human capital of EU member countries accounting for sociocultural determinants," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 231-269, September.
    22. Holly Sutherland & Francesco Figari, 2013. "EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(6), pages 4-26.
    23. Avendano, M. & Glymour, M.M. & Banks, J. & Mackenbach, J.P., 2009. "Health disadvantage in US adults aged 50 to 74 years: A comparison of the health of rich and poor Americans with that of Europeans," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 99(3), pages 540-548.
    24. Grigoli, Francesco & Koczan, Zsoka & Topalova, Petia, 2020. "Automation and labor force participation in advanced economies: Macro and micro evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    25. Agar Brugiavini & Axel B�rsch-Supan & Enrica Croda, 2008. "The Role of Institutions in European Patterns of Work and Retirement," Working Papers 2008_44, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    26. Martin Spielauer & Olivier Dupriez, 2019. "A Portable Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Population, Education and Health Applications in Developing Countries," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 12(3), pages 6-27.
    27. Katharine G. Abraham & Melissa S. Kearney, 2020. "Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 585-643, September.
    28. Congressional Budget Office, 2021. "The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 56977, Congressional Budget Office.
    29. Viola Angelini & Danilo Cavapozzi & Omar Paccagnella, 2011. "Dynamics of reporting work disability in Europe," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(3), pages 621-638, July.
    30. Guillaume Marois & Patrick Sabourin & Alain Bélanger, 2019. "How reducing differentials in education and labor force participation could lessen workforce decline in the EU-28," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(6), pages 125-160.
    31. Ágota Scharle & Balázs Váradi & Flóra Samu, 2015. "Policy Convergence Across Welfare Regimes: The Case of Disability Policies. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 76," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 50914, Juni.
    32. Patrick Laplagne & Maurice Glover & Anthony Shomos, 2007. "Effects of Health and Education on Labour Force Participation," Staff Working Papers 0704, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    33. Thomas Horvath & Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer & Thomas Url, 2021. "The Impact of Education and Health on Labour Force Participation and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67107, Juni.
    34. Alan B. Krueger, 2017. "Where Have All the Workers Gone? An Inquiry into the Decline of the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 1-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johannes Amann & René Böheim & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer, 2021. "The microWELT-US Microsimulation Model for Projections of the US Labour Force Participation Accounting for Education and Health. Technical Report," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67943, Juni.
    2. Ben Baumberg Geiger & René Böheim & Thomas Leoni, 2018. "The growing American health penalty: International trends in the employment of older workers with poor health," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp271, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    3. Jared C. Carbone & Snorre Kverndokk, 2016. "Individual Investments in Education and Health: Policy Responses and Interactions," CESifo Working Paper Series 6154, CESifo.
    4. Titus J. Galama & Adriana Lleras-Muney & Hans van Kippersluis, 2018. "The Effect of Education on Health and Mortality: A Review of Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Evidence," NBER Working Papers 24225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Carbone, Jared C. & Kverndokk, Snorre, 2014. "Individual investments in education and health," HERO Online Working Paper Series 2014:1, University of Oslo, Health Economics Research Programme.
    6. Maria Klonowska-Matynia & Radosław Sobko, 2021. "Spatial Analysis of the Relationship between Health Capital and the Level of Health Care Expenditure in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 133-151.
    7. James J. Heckman, 2019. "The Race Between Demand and Supply: Tinbergen’s Pioneering Studies of Earnings Inequality," De Economist, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 243-258, September.
    8. Holzer, Harry J., 2023. "Can Workforce Development Help Us Reach Full Employment?," IZA Discussion Papers 16624, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Pinghui Wu, 2022. "Wage Inequality and the Rise in Labor Force Exit: The Case of US Prime-Age Men," Working Papers 22-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    10. Grigoli, Francesco & Koczan, Zsoka & Topalova, Petia, 2020. "Automation and labor force participation in advanced economies: Macro and micro evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Bick, Alexander, 2010. "The quantitative role of child care for female labor force participation and fertility," MPRA Paper 25474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ma, Yuanyuan & Nolan, Anne & Smith, James P., 2018. "The value of education to health: Evidence from Ireland," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 14-25.
    13. Michał Myck, 2010. "Wages and Ageing: Is There Evidence for the ‘Inverse‐U’ Profile?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(3), pages 282-306, June.
    14. Jürges Hendrik & Meyer Sophie-Charlotte, 2020. "Educational Differences in Smoking: Selection Versus Causation," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(4), pages 467-492, August.
    15. Falck, Oliver & Heimisch-Roecker, Alexandra & Wiederhold, Simon, 2021. "Returns to ICT skills," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    16. Joshua Goodman, 2019. "The Labor of Division: Returns to Compulsory High School Math Coursework," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(4), pages 1141-1182.
    17. Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, 2016. "Health status and labor force participation: evidence for urban low and middle income individuals in Colombia," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(1), pages 33-55, April.
    18. Michael Christl & Alain Bélanger & Alessandra Conte & Jacopo Mazza & Edlira Narazani, 2022. "Projecting the fiscal impact of immigration in the European Union," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 365-385, December.
    19. Guyonne Kalb & Jordy Meekes, 2021. "Wage Growth Distribution and Changes over Time: 2001–2018," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(1), pages 76-93, March.
    20. Francisco Perez‐Arce & María J. Prados, 2021. "The Decline In The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 615-652, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29534. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.