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Forecasting human capital of EU member countries accounting for sociocultural determinants

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  • Marois, Guillaume
  • Sabourin, Patrick
  • Bélanger, Alain

Abstract

Inclusion of additional dimensions to population projections can lead to an improvement in the overall quality of the projections and to an enhanced analytical potential of derived projections such as literacy skills and labor force participation. This paper describes the modeling of educational attainment of a microsimulation projection model of the European Union countries. Using ordered logistic regressions on five waves of the European Social Survey, we estimate the impact of mother's education and other sociocultural characteristics on educational attainment and implement them into the microsimulation model. Results of the different projection scenarios are contrasted to understand how the education of the mother and sociocultural variables may affect projection outcomes. We show that a change in the impact of mother's education on children's educational attainment may have a big effect on future trends. Moreover, the proposed approach yields more consistent population projection outputs for specific subpopulations.

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  • Marois, Guillaume & Sabourin, Patrick & Bélanger, Alain, 2019. "Forecasting human capital of EU member countries accounting for sociocultural determinants," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 231-269, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:demeco:v:85:y:2019:i:3:p:231-269_3
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Christl & Alain Bélanger & Alessandra Conte & Jacopo Mazza & Edlira Narazani, 2022. "Projecting the fiscal impact of immigration in the European Union," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 365-385, December.
    2. René Böheim & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer, 2023. "The Impact of Health and Education on Labor Force Participation in Aging Societies: Projections for the United States and Germany from Dynamic Microsimulations," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-35, June.

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