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The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

By the end of fiscal year 2021, federal debt held by the public is projected to equal 102 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). If current laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged, debt would equal 107 percent of GDP in 2031, its highest level in the nation’s history, CBO projects. Growth in outlays would outpace growth in revenues in subsequent decades, leading to growing budget deficits over the long term. As a result, federal debt would continue to increase, exceeding 200 percent of GDP by 2051.

Suggested Citation

  • Congressional Budget Office, 2021. "The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 56977, Congressional Budget Office.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbo:report:56977
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-03/56977-LTBO-2021.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2022. "Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07," Working Papers 57711, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. René Böheim & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer, 2023. "The Impact of Health and Education on Labor Force Participation in Aging Societies: Projections for the United States and Germany from Dynamic Microsimulations," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-35, June.
    3. Paul Gomme, 2020. "Labor Market and Fiscal Policy During and After the Coronavirus," CIRANO Papers 2020pe-10, CIRANO.
    4. Eleftherios Giovanis & Oznur Ozdamar, 2022. "The impact of climate change on budget balances and debt in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-27, June.
    5. Thomas Url & Rob J. Hyndman & Alexander Dokumentov, 2016. "Long-term Forecasts of Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates with Functional Data Models," WIFO Working Papers 510, WIFO.
    6. Huixin Bi & Wenyi Shen & Shu‐Chun S. Yang, 2022. "Fiscal implications of interest rate normalization in the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 868-904, May.
    7. Daniel Fried, 2021. "CBO’s Model and Projections of U.S. International Investment Holdings and Income Flows: Working Paper 2021-10," Working Papers 57326, Congressional Budget Office.
    8. Thomas Url & Rob J Hyndman & Alexander Dokumentov, 2016. "Long-term forecasts of age-specific participation rates with functional data models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. Hilary W. Hoynes & Nicole Maestas & Alexander Strand, 2022. "Legal Representation in Disability Claims," NBER Working Papers 29871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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