IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2867.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dealing With Debt: The 1930s and the 1980s

Author

Listed:
  • Barry Eichengreen
  • Richard Portes

Abstract

This paper analyzes the sovereign defaults of the 1930s and their implications for the debt crisis of the 1980s. It reports nine major findings. There is little evidence that financial markets have grown more sophisticated' over time, or that banks have a comparative advantage over the bond market in processing information. (2) Debt default in the 1930s depended on a combination of factors,. including the magnitude of the external shocks, the level of debt, and: the: economic policy response , as well as on a range, of: noneconomic considerations. (3) Countries which interrupted service recovered more quickly from the Great Depression than countries which resisted default. This contrasts with the experience of the 1980s, when no clearcut relationship exists (4) There is little evidence that countries which defaulted in the 19305 suffered inferior capital market access subsequently. (S} The readjustment of defaulted debts was protracted: the analogy with Chapter 11 corporate bankruptcy proceedings is no more applicable to the 1930s than to the 1980s. (6) Although default led in some cases to a substantial reduction of transfers from debtors to creditors, on balance returns on sovereign loans compared favorably with returns on domestic investments. (7) Creditor-country governments did more in the 'thirties than in the 'eighties to accelerate the settlement process. (3) Global schemes analogous to the Baker Plan were widely proposed but never implemented. (9) In contrast, market-based debt reduction in the form G debt buybacks played a useful role in the resolution of the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Eichengreen & Richard Portes, 1989. "Dealing With Debt: The 1930s and the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 2867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2867
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2867.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fishlow, Albert, 1985. "Lessons from the past: capital markets during the 19th century and the interwar period," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 383-439, July.
    2. Sule Ozler, 1988. "Evolution of Commerical Bank Lending to Developing Countries," UCLA Economics Working Papers 497, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Barry Eichengreen and Richard Portes., 1988. "Settling Defaults in the Era of Bond Finance," Economics Working Papers 8885, University of California at Berkeley.
    4. Stanley Fischer, 1987. "Resolving the International Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 2373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Portes, Richard, 1986. "The Anatomy of Financial Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Anne O. Krueger, 1978. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue78-1, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "The role of the IMF in recent sovereign debt restructurings: Implications for the policy of lending into arrears," Occasional Papers 0805, Banco de España.
    2. Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky & Julian Schumacher, 2019. "Long-Term Returns in Distressed Sovereign Bond Markets: How Did Investors Fare?," IMF Working Papers 2019/138, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Marc Flandreau & Juan H. Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2010. "The End of Gatekeeping: Underwriters and the Quality of Sovereign Bond Markets, 1815–2007," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 53-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen & Trebesch, Christoph, 2014. "A Distant Mirror of Debt, Default, and Relief," CEPR Discussion Papers 10195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Barrett, Christopher B., 1996. "The Economic And Ethical Ambiguities Of African Debt Forgiveness," Economics Research Institute, ERI Study Papers 28345, Utah State University, Economics Department.
    7. Bowe, M. & Dean, J.W., 1997. "Has the Market Solved the Sovereign-Debt Crisis?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 83, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    8. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 1989. "Capital drain, debt relief, and creditworthiness of developing countries," Kiel Working Papers 379, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," Economics Working Papers 17108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    10. Paul R. Krugman & Thomas Enders & William R. Rhodes, 1994. "LDC Debt Policy," NBER Chapters, in: American Economic Policy in the 1980s, pages 691-740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Balazs Szentes & Natalia Kovrijnykh, 2005. "A Theory of Debt Overhang and Buyback," 2005 Meeting Papers 447, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Jean-Pierre Allegret, 2015. "6. Quelles sont les causes et les conséquences d’un défaut sur la dette publique ?," Regards croisés sur l'économie, La Découverte, vol. 0(2), pages 101-116.
    13. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "Recent episodes of sovereign debt restructurings. A case-study approach," Occasional Papers 0804, Banco de España.
    14. Anna Gelpern & Ugo Panizza, 2022. "Enough Potential Repudiation: Economic and Legal Aspects of Sovereign Debt in the Pandemic Era," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 545-570, August.
    15. Franke, Günter, 1990. "Avenues for the reduction of LDC-debt: An institutional analysis," Discussion Papers, Series II 100, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    16. de Aghion, Beatriz Armendariz & de Hinestrosa, Patricia Armendariz, 1995. "Debt relief, growth and price stability in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 135-149, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eichengreen, Barry, 1988. "Resolving Debt Crises: An Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 239, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Jeremy I. Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1988. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Panacea or Pangloss?," NBER Working Papers 2637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rui Pedro Esteves, 2007. "Quis custodiet quem? Sovereign Debt and Bondholders` Protection Before 1914," Economics Series Working Papers 323, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Mauricio Avella Gómez, 2006. "El Acceso De Colombia Al Financiamiento Externo," Borradores de Economia 2450, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Sule Ozler, 1988. "Have Commerical Banks Ignored History," UCLA Economics Working Papers 498, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Mauricio Avella Gómez, 2006. "El Acceso De Colombia Al Financiamiento Externo Durante Durante," Borradores de Economia 2451, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Schiff, Maurice*Valdes, Alberto, 1998. "Agriculture and the macroeconomy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1967, The World Bank.
    8. Gérard Grellet, 1987. "Les politiques d'ajustement orthodoxes. Un point de vue critique," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 28(109), pages 9-23.
    9. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2010. "Trade liberalization, industrialization and development; experience of recent decades," MPRA Paper 26355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Introduction to "Developing Country Debt and the World Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 1-34, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Sudip Ranjan Basu, 2005. "Correlating Growth with Well-Being during Economic Reforms Evidence from India and China," Development and Comp Systems 0509010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. I.Igal Magendzo, 2002. "Are Devaluations Really Contractionary?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 182, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin & Nor Aznin Abu Bakar & Muhammad Haseeb, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of Exports between Malaysia and TPP Member Countries: Evidence from a Panel Cointegration (FMOLS) Model," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(6), pages 238-238, December.
    14. tattara, Giuseppe, 1995. "Bilancia dei pagamenti, movimenti dei capitali ed equilibrio interno nei primi 50 anni del regno d'Italia [Balance of payments, capital movements, domestic equilibrium in the first 50 years of the ," MPRA Paper 39086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Tattara, Giuseppe, 2003. "Paper money but a gold debt: Italy on the gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 122-142, April.
    16. David Gould & Roy Ruffin, 1995. "Human capital, trade, and economic growth," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(3), pages 425-445, September.
    17. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    18. Kym Anderson & Johan Swinnen, 2008. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Europe's Transition Economies," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6502, December.
    19. Sebastian Edwards & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1983. "The Welfare Effects of Trade and Capital Market Liberalization: Consequences of Different Sequencing Scenarios," NBER Working Papers 1245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 1998. "Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 497-506, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2867. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.