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Using a Satisficing Model of Experimenter Decision-Making to Guide Finite-Sample Inference for Compromised Experiments

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  • Ganesh Karapakula
  • James J. Heckman

Abstract

This paper presents a simple decision-theoretic economic approach for analyzing social experiments with compromised random assignment protocols that are only partially documented. We model administratively constrained experimenters who satisfice in seeking covariate balance. We develop design-based small-sample hypothesis tests that use worst-case (least favorable) randomization null distributions. Our approach accommodates a variety of compromised experiments, including imperfectly documented re-randomization designs. To make our analysis concrete, we focus much of our discussion on the influential Perry Preschool Project. We reexamine previous estimates of program effectiveness using our methods. The choice of how to model reassignment vitally affects inference.

Suggested Citation

  • Ganesh Karapakula & James J. Heckman, 2020. "Using a Satisficing Model of Experimenter Decision-Making to Guide Finite-Sample Inference for Compromised Experiments," NBER Working Papers 27738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27738
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    1. James Heckman & Seong Hyeok Moon & Rodrigo Pinto & Peter Savelyev & Adam Yavitz, 2010. "Analyzing social experiments as implemented: evidence from the HighScope Perry Preschool Program," CeMMAP working papers CWP22/10, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Kari Lock Morgan & Donald B. Rubin, 2015. "Rerandomization to Balance Tiers of Covariates," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(512), pages 1412-1421, December.
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    5. Rodrigo Pinto & Azeem Shaikh & Adam Yavitz & James Heckman, 2010. "Inference with Imperfect Randomization: The Case of the Perry Preschool Program," 2010 Meeting Papers 1336, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2005. "Exact and Approximate Stepdown Methods for Multiple Hypothesis Testing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 94-108, March.
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    15. Young, Alwyn, 2019. "Channeling Fisher: randomization tests and the statistical insignificance of seemingly significant experimental results," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101401, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Anqi & Ding, Peng, 2021. "Covariate-adjusted Fisher randomization tests for the average treatment effect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 278-294.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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