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Labor Market Polarization and The Great Urban Divergence

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  • Donald R. Davis
  • Eric Mengus
  • Tomasz K. Michalski

Abstract

Labor market polarization is among the most important features in recent decades of advanced country labor markets. Yet key spatial aspects of this phenomenon remain under-explored. We develop four key facts that document the universality of polarization, a city-size difference in the shock magnitudes, a skew in the types of middle-paid jobs lost, and the role of polarization in the great urban divergence. Existing theories cannot account for these facts. Hence we develop a parsimonious theoretical account that does so by integrating elements from the literatures on labor market polarization and systems of cities with heterogeneous labor in spatial equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald R. Davis & Eric Mengus & Tomasz K. Michalski, 2020. "Labor Market Polarization and The Great Urban Divergence," NBER Working Papers 26955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26955
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    Cited by:

    1. Cerina, Fabio & Dienesch, Elisa & Monge-Naranjo, Alexander & Moro, Alessio, 2026. "The Anatomy of Polarization - Evidence from Worker Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 21480, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Arntz, Melanie & Ivanov, Boris & Pohlan, Laura, 2022. "Regional Structural Change and the Effects of Job Loss," IZA Discussion Papers 15313, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Jan Eeckhout & Christoph Hedtrich & Roberto Pinheiro, 2026. "IT and Urban Polarization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 223-259, January.
    4. Croce, Giuseppe & Piselli, Paolo, 2024. "Are the best jobs created in largest cities? Evidence from Italy 1993-2016," MPRA Paper 121228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hennig, Jan-Luca, 2021. "Labor Market Polarization and Intergenerational Mobility: Theory and Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242353, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Mayneris, Florian, 2025. "Does the urban wage premium imply a higher firms’ labor share in big cities?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. Maxime Liegey & Nathalie Picard, 2024. "Stuck in the middle? Occupation-specific commute-wage trade-off at the metropolitan level," Working Papers of BETA 2024-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    8. Koster, Hans R.A. & Ozgen, Ceren, 2021. "Cities and tasks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Althoff, Lukas & Eckert, Fabian & Ganapati, Sharat & Walsh, Conor, 2022. "The Geography of Remote Work," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    10. Battisti & M. Del Gatto & A. Gravina & C. Parmeter, 2021. "Robots versus labor skills: a complementarity/substitutability analysis," Working Paper CRENoS 202104, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    11. repec:aei:rpaper:1008550139 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Fabio Cerina & Elisa Dienesch & Alessio Moro & Michelle Rendall, 2023. "Spatial Polarisation," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(649), pages 30-69.
    13. Mathieu P.A. Steijn, 2024. "The persistence and nature of the labor reallocation shock during the COVID-19 crisis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-047/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Finlay, John & Williams, Trevor C., 2025. "Housing demand, inequality, and spatial sorting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Fabian Eckert & Sharat Ganapati & Conor Walsh, 2020. "Urban-Biased Growth: A Macroeconomic Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8705, CESifo.
    16. Maxime Liégey, 2024. "Stuck in the middle? Occupation-speci," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 32, Stata Users Group.

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    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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