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The Anatomy of Polarization - Evidence from Worker Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Cerina, Fabio
  • Dienesch, Elisa
  • Monge-Naranjo, Alexander
  • Moro, Alessio

Abstract

Using longitudinal French administrative data (1984--2021), we document that employment polarization after 1994 reflects major changes in labor-market entry rather than mass occupational downgrading or displacement of incumbents. Flows from routine to abstract occupations remain substantial throughout the period, and a large fraction of these upgrades is due to non-college workers. The decisive shift that generates polarization occurs at the entry margin: the net flow from non-employment into routine occupations reverses around 1994, while the net flow from non-employment into manual work increases. These patterns motivate life-cycle models of occupational choice that explicitly incorporate cohort heterogeneity and separate entry and re-entry margins.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerina, Fabio & Dienesch, Elisa & Monge-Naranjo, Alexander & Moro, Alessio, 2026. "The Anatomy of Polarization - Evidence from Worker Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 21480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21480
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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