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The Anatomy of Polarization - Evidence from Worker Flows

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  • Cerina, Fabio
  • Dienesch, Elisa
  • Monge-Naranjo, Alexander
  • Moro, Alessio

Abstract

Using a French administrative panel following workers over 1984-2021, we quantify how worker flows account for employment polarization. We trace job-to-job flows across manual, routine, and abstract occupations, and flows between employment and non-employment. Polarization emerges after 1994 mostly through a shift in the latter: a collapse in entry into routine jobs, concentrated in routine-cognitive occupations. Job-to-job upgrading from routine to abstract remains large and stable, with non-college workers accounting for 76% of net flows. Manual employment grows mainly by absorbing entrants. Polarization reflects sorting at entry and re-entry rather than incumbent displacement, motivating life-cycle models incorporating both margins.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerina, Fabio & Dienesch, Elisa & Monge-Naranjo, Alexander & Moro, Alessio, 2026. "The Anatomy of Polarization - Evidence from Worker Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 21480, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21480
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    JEL classification:

    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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