Can Civic Mobilization Reduce Sexual Violence? Evidence from March 4 Justice Demonstrations in Australia

Civic mobilization is a common societal response to gender-based violence, but whether it actually changes sexual offending is largely unknown. We exploit geographic variation in exposure to the March 4 Justice (M4J) movement — a nationally coordinated series of protests against gender-based violence held across Australia on 15th March 2021 — as a natural experiment, using a difference-in-differences design. We find that areas hosting the protests experienced a 16 to 21 per cent reduction in recorded sexual assaults over the six to twelve months following the movement, with no significant effects across six other crime categories. This suggests a mechanism specific to sexual violence rather than general deterrence. These effects are larger in locations closer to protest activity and at sites with sizable crowds compared to smaller ones. Attitudinal data from the National Community Attitudes towards Violence against Women Survey reveal significant shifts in men’s attitudes: greater rejection of rape myths, increased survivor credibility, and reduced endorsement of patriarchal norms, with these shifts concentrated among younger and more educated men. The reductions in sexual assault are concentrated in male-represented areas, where the movement’s normative signal was more novel, and nationwide, we find suggestive evidence of a modest rise in female electoral support in 2022 relative to 2019. Together, these findings suggest that civic mobilization can reduce violence through the internalization of norms.