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Can Portugal Escape Stagnation without Opting Out from the Eurozone?


  • Pedro Leao
  • Alfonso Palacio-Vera


The creation of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has not brought significant gains to the Portuguese economy in terms of real convergence with wealthier eurozone countries. We analyze the causes of the underperformance of the Portuguese economy in the last decade, discuss its growth prospects within the EMU, and make two proposals for urgent institutional reform of the EMU. We argue that, under the prevailing institutional framework, Portugal faces a long period of stagnation, high unemployment, and painful structural reform, and conclude that, in the absence of institutional reform of the EMU, getting out of the eurozone represents a serious political option for Portugal.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Leao & Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2011. "Can Portugal Escape Stagnation without Opting Out from the Eurozone?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_664, Levy Economics Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_664

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. J.M.C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 51-74, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:oup:cambje:v:41:y:2017:i:4:p:977-998. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "Alternative interpretations of a stateless currency crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(4), pages 977-998.

    More about this item


    Nominal Wage Cuts; Eurozone; Relative Unit Labor Costs; Zero-sum Game;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J50 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - General

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