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Currency derivatives and the disconnection between exchange rate volatility and international trade

Author

Listed:
  • Bas Straathof

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Paolo Calio

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

Abstract

Exchange rate risk will only have a small effect on international transactions as long as this risk is easily tradable. We find evidence indicating that the availability of currency futures can explain the relatively small impact of exchange rate volatility on trade. The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade is small for industrialized countries, especially since the late 1980s. An explanation for this is Wei’s (1999) “hedging hypothesis”, which states that the availability of currency derivatives has changed the relation between exchange rate volatility and trade. Exchange rate risk will only have a small effect on international transactions as long as this risk is easily tradable. We find evidence indicating that the availability of currency futures can explain the relatively small impact of exchange rate volatility on trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Bas Straathof & Paolo Calio, 2012. "Currency derivatives and the disconnection between exchange rate volatility and international trade," CPB Discussion Paper 203, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:203
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233209, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
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    4. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, April.
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    6. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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