IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cii/cepidt/2023-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why Origin Matters in Trade Data

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre Cotterlaz
  • Vincent Vicard

Abstract

Different reporting standards are applied to determine the country of origin of trade flows in existing international trade databases, altering the geography of trade. We illustrate this issue using two extensively used trade databases, UN-Comtrade and IMF-DoTS and show that it has important implications when evaluating the impact of trade policies using a gravity framework. We provide evidence that IMF-DoTs applies different reporting standards for intra- and extra-EU trade from 1999 onwards. Such discrepancies generate a (significant) upward bias in the estimated impact of RTA, the EU and the euro area on trade. Reporting standards also differ across declaring countries in UN-Comtrade. We show that it inflates the estimated impact of Brexit on trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Cotterlaz & Vincent Vicard, 2023. "Why Origin Matters in Trade Data," Working Papers 2023-23, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-23.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2016. "Currency unions and trade: A post-EMU reassessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 78-91.
    2. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    3. Mr. Marco Marini & Mr. Robert Dippelsman & Mr. Michael Stanger, 2018. "New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics," IMF Working Papers 2018/016, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Thierry Mayer & Vincent Vicard & Soledad Zignago & Beata Javorcik, 2019. "The cost of non-Europe, revisited," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 145-199.
    5. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2021. "The United States of Europe: A Gravity Model Evaluation of the Four Freedoms," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 23-48, Spring.
    7. Thierry Mayer & Vincent Vicard & Soledad Zignago & Beata Javorcik, 2019. "The cost of non-Europe, revisited," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 145-199.
    8. Peter Egger & Yvonne Wolfmayr, 2014. "What Economists Should Know About International Goods Trade Data," WIFO Working Papers 475, WIFO.
    9. Mario Larch & Joschka Wanner & Yoto V. Yotov & Thomas Zylkin, 2019. "Currency Unions and Trade: A PPML Re‐assessment with High‐dimensional Fixed Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(3), pages 487-510, June.
    10. J.M.C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 51-74, September.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6o8sdn6fuv9m1r3rt5verlv4b7 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2022. "ECOWAS single currency: Prospective effects on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Harald Oberhofer & Zhenyi Wang, 2025. "Everything You Always Wanted to Know About EU Membership Trade Effects But Were Afraid to Ask," CESifo Working Paper Series 11823, CESifo.
    3. Gosens, Jorrit, 2020. "The greening of South-South trade: Levels, growth, and specialization of trade in clean energy technologies between countries in the global South," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 931-943.
    4. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & Jordi Paniagua, 2021. "Has the Euro paid off? A study of the trade-induced welfare effects of the EMU," Working Papers 2103, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    5. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    6. Natalie Chen & Dennis Novy, 2022. "Gravity and Heterogeneous Trade Cost Elasticities," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1349-1377.
    7. Thierry Mayer & Vincent Vicard & Soledad Zignago & Beata Javorcik, 2019. "The cost of non-Europe, revisited," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 145-199.
    8. Weidner, Martin & Zylkin, Thomas, 2021. "Bias and consistency in three-way gravity models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Emanuel Ornelas & Marcos Ritel, 2020. "The not‐so‐generalised effects of the Generalized System of Preferences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1809-1840, July.
    10. Heid, Benedikt & Stähler, Frank, 2024. "Structural gravity and the gains from trade under imperfect competition: Quantifying the effects of the European Single Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    11. Dutt, Pushan, 2020. "The WTO is not passé," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Koen Jochmans & Vincenzo Verardi, 2022. "Instrumental‐variable estimation of exponential‐regression models with two‐way fixed effects with an application to gravity equations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1121-1137, September.
    13. Santamaría, Marta & Ventura, Jaume & Yeşilbayraktar, Uğur, 2023. "Exploring European regional trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    14. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jacopo Timini, 2022. "Unequal trade, unequal gains: the heterogeneous impact of MERCOSUR," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(49), pages 5655-5669, October.
    15. Laurent Didier, 2020. "Exchange rate regimes, trade in raw materials and exporters behavior: Evidence from some Small Island Developing States (SIDS)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 2894-2919.
    16. Fabien Candau & Geoffroy Guepie & Reine Kouakou, 2018. "In Gravity no Veritas: Dubious Trade Elasticiy and Weak Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in Africa," Working Papers hal-02625930, HAL.
    17. Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Revisiting the ‘Cobden-Chevalier network’ trade and welfare effects," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    18. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin & Heiland, Inga, 2022. "Complex Europe: Quantifying the cost of disintegration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    19. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6o8sdn6fuv9m1r3rt5verlv4b7 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. (ed.), 0. "Research Handbook on Economic Diplomacy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16053.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6o8sdn6fuv9m1r3rt5verlv4b7 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Federico Carril-Caccia & José María Martín Martín & Francisco Javier Sáez-Fernández, 2024. "How important are borders for tourism? The case of Europe," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 27-43, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepiifr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.