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Fertility, Regional Demographics, and Economic Integration

Author

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  • Hiroshi Goto

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

  • Keiya Minamimura

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

Abstract

To explain the links between population distribution and economic integration, we construct a spatial economics model with endogenous fertility. A higher population concentration increases real wages and child-raising costs, thus lowering the fertility rate. However, people migrate to more populated regions to obtain higher real wages. We show that mobility across regions results in more people flowing into highly populated regions, but lowers fertility rates there. The population growth path resembles a logistic curve in the early phase, but population decreases in the last phase. Additionally, economic integration leads to population concentration and decreases population size in the whole economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi Goto & Keiya Minamimura, 2014. "Fertility, Regional Demographics, and Economic Integration," Discussion Papers 1405, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:koe:wpaper:1405
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Madoka Muroishi & Akira Yakita, 2021. "Agglomeration economies, congestion diseconomies, and fertility dynamics in a two-region economy," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 51-63, April.
    2. Hiroshi Goto & Keiya Minamimura, 2019. "Geography and Demography: New Economic Geography with Endogenous Fertility," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 537-568, December.
    3. Kónya, István, 2019. "Külkereskedelem, regionális különbségek és a képzettek vándorlása [Foreign trade, regional differences, and migration of skilled staff]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 635-652.
    4. Hiroyuki Hashimoto & Tohru Naito, 2024. "National welfare implications of regional childcare policy: A theoretical approach," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 18(1), pages 38-66, June.
    5. Hiroshi Goto & Keiya Minamimura, 2019. "Geography and Demography: New Economic Geography with Endogenous Fertility," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 537-568, December.
    6. Hiroyuki Hashimoto & Tohru Naito, 2024. "Does an urban childcare policy improve the nurturing environment in a city?," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 85-109, March.
    7. Hiroyuki Hashimoto & Tohru Naito, 2021. "Urbanization, waitlisted children, and childcare support in a two‐region overlapping generations model," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 1068-1089, June.
    8. Keisuke Kondo, 2019. "Does agglomeration discourage fertility? Evidence from the Japanese General Social Survey 2000–2010," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 677-704.
    9. Hiroshi Goto & Keiya Minamimura, 2019. "Geography and Demography: New Economic Geography with Endogenous Fertility," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 537-568, December.
    10. Wataru Takahashi, 2021. "Population Mobility Structural Analysis and Population Estimation Using a Quantitative Spatial Model," Discussion papers ron339, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population Change; Migration; Agglomeration; Trade freeness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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