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Fertility, Regional Demographics, and Economic Integration

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  • Hiroshi Goto

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

  • Keiya Minamimura

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

Abstract

To explain the links between population distribution and economic integration, we construct a spatial economics model with endogenous fertility. A higher population concentration increases real wages and child-raising costs, thus lowering the fertility rate. However, people migrate to more populated regions to obtain higher real wages. We show that mobility across regions results in more people flowing into highly populated regions, but lowers fertility rates there. The population growth path resembles a logistic curve in the early phase, but population decreases in the last phase. Additionally, economic integration leads to population concentration and decreases population size in the whole economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi Goto & Keiya Minamimura, 2014. "Fertility, Regional Demographics, and Economic Integration," Discussion Papers 1405, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:koe:wpaper:1405
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hiroshi Goto & Keiya Minamimura, 2015. "Geography and Demography: New Economic Geography with Endogenous Fertility," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-33, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    2. Keisuke Kondo, 2019. "Does agglomeration discourage fertility? Evidence from the Japanese General Social Survey 2000–2010," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 677-704.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population Change; Migration; Agglomeration; Trade freeness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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