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Large Demographic Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market

  • Brandt, Loren


    (University of Toronto)

  • Siow, Aloysius


    (University of Toronto)

  • Vogel, Carl


    (affiliation not available)

This paper provides non-parametric estimates of the total effects of famine in China on marital behavior of famine affected cohorts in rural areas of Sichuan and Anhui. The reduced form estimates incorporate general equilibrium and heterogeneous treatment effects, two important components of equilibrium marital behavior. Next the paper uses a structural model of the marriage market to decomposed observed marital outcomes into quantity and quality effects. The structural estimates show that the famine reduced the marital attractiveness of the famine-born cohort. The conclusion is that the small observed changes in marriage rates of the famine born cohort are due to a significant decline in marital attractiveness.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 4243.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4243
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  1. Imbens, Guido W. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 3640, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Eugene Choo & Aloysius Siow, 2006. "Who Marries Whom and Why," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(1), pages 175-201, February.
  3. Lin, Justin Yifu & Yang, Dennis Tao, 2000. "Food Availability, Entitlements and the Chinese Famine of 1959-61," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 136-58, January.
  4. Douglas Almond & Lena Edlund & Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang, 2007. "Long-Term Effects Of The 1959-1961 China Famine: Mainland China and Hong Kong," NBER Working Papers 13384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. James Heckman & Lance Lockner & Christopher Taber, 1999. "Human capital formation and general equilibrium treatment effects: a study of tax and tuition policy," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 25-40, March.
  6. Bergstrom, T. & Lam, D., 1989. "The Effects of Cohort Size on Mariage Market in Twentieth Century Sweden," Papers 91-6, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  7. Zhehui Luo & Ren Mu & Xiaobo Zhang, 2006. "Famine and Overweight in China ," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 296-304.
  8. Chen, Yuyu & Zhou, Li-An, 2007. "The long-term health and economic consequences of the 1959-1961 famine in China," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 659-681, July.
  9. Meng, Xin & Qian, Nancy, 2006. "The Long Run Health and Economic Consequences of Famine on Survivors: Evidence from China’s Great Famine," IZA Discussion Papers 2471, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Wei Li & Dennis Tao Yang, 2005. "The Great Leap Forward: Anatomy of a Central Planning Disaster," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 840-877, August.
  11. Eugene Choo & Shannon Seitz & Aloysius Siow, 2008. "Marriage matching, risk sharing and spousal labor supplies," Working Papers tecipa-332, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
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