China's marriage market and upcoming challenges for elderly men
Fertility decline has fueled a sharp increase in the proportion of'missing girls'in China, so an increasing share of males will fail to marry, and will face old age without the support normally provided by wives and children. This paper shows that historically, China has had nearly-universal marriage for women and a very competitive market for men. Lower-educated men experience higher rates of bachelorhood while women favor men with better prospects, migrating if needed from poorer to wealthier areas. The authors examine the anticipated effects of this combination of bride shortage and hypergamy, for different regions of China. Their projections indicate that unmarried males will likely be concentrated in poorer provinces with low fiscal ability to provide social protection to their citizens. Such geographic concentration of unmarried males could be socially disruptive, and the paper’s findings suggest a need to expand the coverage of social protection programs financed substantially by the central government.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2010|
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- Avraham Y. Ebenstein & Ethan Jennings Sharygin, 2009. "The Consequences of the "Missing Girls" of China," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 23(3), pages 399-425, November.
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- Loren Brandt & Aloysius Siow & Carl Vogel, 2009.
"Large Demographic Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
615, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Brandt, Loren & Siow, Aloysius & Vogel, Carl, 2009. "Large Demographic Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market," IZA Discussion Papers 4243, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Hongmei Yi & Linxiu Zhang & Kim Singer & Scott Rozelle & Scott Atlas, 2009.
"Health insurance and catastrophic illness: a report on the New Cooperative Medical System in rural China,"
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- Adam Wagstaff & Winnie Yip & Magnus Lindelow & William C. Hsiao, 2009. "China's health system and its reform: a review of recent studies," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(S2), pages S7-S23, July.
- Lena Edlund & Hongbin Li & Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang, 2013. "Sex Ratios and Crime: Evidence from China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1520-1534, December.
- Xin Meng & Robert G Gregory, . "Impact of Interupted Education on Earnings: The Educational Cost of the Chinese Cultural revolution," Canadian International Labour Network Working Papers 40, McMaster University.
- Douglas Almond & Lena Edlund & Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang, 2007. "Long-Term Effects Of The 1959-1961 China Famine: Mainland China and Hong Kong," NBER Working Papers 13384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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