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Marriage Squeeze, Never-Married Proportion, and Mean Age at First Marriage in China

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  • Quanbao Jiang
  • Marcus Feldman

    ()

  • Shuzhuo Li

Abstract

China’s sex ratio imbalance and the surplus of males have received a great deal of attention, but measures of the extent of the marriage squeeze do not take into account the marital status of population. In this paper, we devise an index of the marriage squeeze for the never-married population and use it to project the male marriage squeeze from 2000 to 2060. From the predicted population and nuptiality tables, we estimate trends in the proportion of men that never marry by age 50 and the mean age at first marriage. We find that the marriage squeeze is much more intense if only the never-married population is considered, rather than including all people without distinguishing their marital status. As the lifelong never-married proportion increases, mean age at first marriage rises first and then declines. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Quanbao Jiang & Marcus Feldman & Shuzhuo Li, 2014. "Marriage Squeeze, Never-Married Proportion, and Mean Age at First Marriage in China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(2), pages 189-204, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:33:y:2014:i:2:p:189-204
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-013-9283-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yong Cai, 2008. "An assessment of China’s fertility level using the variable-r method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(2), pages 271-281, May.
    2. Shang-Jin Wei & Xiaobo Zhang, 2011. "The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 511-564.
    3. Daniel Goodkind, 2011. "Child Underreporting, Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(1), pages 291-316, February.
    4. Christophe Guilmoto, 2012. "Skewed Sex Ratios at Birth and Future Marriage Squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(1), pages 77-100, February.
    5. Quanbao Jiang & Shuzhuo Li & Marcus Feldman, 2011. "Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(4), pages 619-638, August.
    6. Christophe Z. Guilmoto, 2009. "The Sex Ratio Transition in Asia," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(3), pages 519-549, September.
    7. M. Merli & Adrian Raftery, 2000. "Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China’s population policies," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(1), pages 109-126, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Quanbao Jiang & Xiaomin Li & Shuzhuo Li & Marcus W. Feldman, 2016. "China’s Marriage Squeeze: A Decomposition into Age and Sex Structure," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 793-807, June.
    2. You, Jing & Yi, Xuejie & Chen, Meng, 2016. "Love, Life, and “Leftover Ladies” in Urban China," MPRA Paper 70494, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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