For Better or for Babies: Fertility Constraints and Marriage in China

We examine how the 2015 relaxation of China's one-child policy affected marriage outcomes. Before the reform, some groups were already permitted to have two children. In China, where the sex ratio is heavily skewed toward men, being exempt from the one-child constraint may have been a desirable characteristic for marriage, increasing men's marriage odds. Using detailed policy data on exemptions and individual data from 2010-2018, we find that after the relaxation, men previously allowed a second child are less likely to marry compared to those not allowed. There is no effect for women. The results suggest that differential fertility constraints distorted who got married by advantaging certain men when there was a demand for a second child and strong marriage competition. Furthermore, suggestive evidence shows that the relaxation increased matching by education when exemptions were moderately widespread, indicating that fertility constraints also shaped who married whom.