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Large Demographic Shocks And Small Changes In The Marriage Market

Author

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  • Loren Brandt
  • Aloysius Siow
  • Carl Vogel

Abstract

Between 1958 and 1961, China experienced a drastic famine. The famine substantially reduced birth rates and also adversely affected the health of these famine-born cohorts. This paper provides nonparametric estimates of the total effects of the famine on the marital behavior of famine-affected cohorts in rural Sichuan and Anhui. These reduced-form estimates incorporate general equilibrium and heterogeneous treatment effects. The paper uses the Choo–Siow model to decompose observed marital outcomes into quantity and quality effects. A decline in marital attractiveness of famine-affected cohorts, which is correlated with an increase in marital childlessness, provides support for the external validity of the Choo–Siow decomposition. The small observed changes in marriage rates of the famine-born cohorts are due to a substantial decline in their marital attractiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Loren Brandt & Aloysius Siow & Carl Vogel, 2016. "Large Demographic Shocks And Small Changes In The Marriage Market," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1437-1468, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jeurec:v:14:y:2016:i:6:p:1437-1468
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jeea.12176
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    Cited by:

    1. Dan Anderberg & Jesper Bagger & V. Bhaskar & Tanya Wilson, 2019. "Marriage market equilibrium, qualifications, and ability," CESifo Working Paper Series 7570, CESifo.
    2. Shreyasee Das & Shatanjaya Dasgupta, 2023. "Hidden costs of industrial disasters: Marriage market consequences of the Bhopal Gas Disaster," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(2), pages 813-829.
    3. Timo Hener & Tanya Wilson, 2018. "Marital Age Gaps and Educational Homogamy – Evidence from a Compulsory Schooling Reform in the UK," ifo Working Paper Series 256, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Shreyasee Das & Shatanjaya Dasgupta, 2025. "Marriage Market Responses in the Wake of a Natural Disaster in India," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 20(1), pages 31-57, April.
    5. Ding, Yawen & Min, Shi & Wang, Xiaobing & Yu, Xiaohua, 2022. "Memory of famine: The persistent impact of famine experience on food waste behavior," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Amr Ragab & Ayhab F. Saad, 2023. "The effects of a negative economic shock on male marriage in the West Bank," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 789-814, September.
    7. Anderberg, Dan & Vickery, Alexander, 2021. "The role of own-group density and local social norms for ethnic marital sorting: Evidence from the UK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Chiplunkar, Gaurav & Weaver, Jeffrey, 2023. "Marriage markets and the rise of dowry in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    9. Fletcher, Jason M., 2018. "The effects of in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic on family formation," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-68.
    10. Irene Mosca & Anne Nolan, 2025. "The Long‐Term Effects of In Utero Exposure to Rubella," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(4), pages 771-788, August.
    11. Rossi, Pauline & Xiao, Yun, 2026. "Left over or opting out? Squeeze, mismatch and surplus in Chinese marriage markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    12. Madhulika Khanna & Nishtha Kochhar, 2023. "Do marriage markets respond to a natural disaster? The impact of flooding of the Kosi river in India," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 2241-2276, October.
    13. Michael Geruso & Heather Royer, 2018. "The Impact of Education on Family Formation: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the UK," NBER Working Papers 24332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Yiru Wang, 2023. "Famine and matching by socioeconomic status—evidence from the Great Chinese Famine," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 855-912, September.
    15. Nie, Guangyu, 2020. "Marriage squeeze, marriage age and the household savings rate in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    16. Das Gupta, Monica & Ebenstein, Avraham & Sharygin, Ethan Jennings, 2010. "China's marriage market and upcoming challenges for elderly men," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5351, The World Bank.
    17. Mingwang Cheng & Zhouxiang Wang & Ning Neil Yu, 2024. "Long‐term mental health cost of the Great Chinese Famine," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 121-136, January.
    18. Shelly Lundberg & Aloysius Siow, 2017. "Canadian contributions to family economics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1304-1323, December.
    19. John Knowles & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2019. "Fertility Shocks And Equilibrium Marriage‐Rate Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1505-1537, November.
    20. Alessie, Rob & Angelini, Viola & Mierau, Jochen O. & Viluma, Laura, 2018. "Economic downturns and infant health," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 162-171.
    21. Dan Anderberg & Jesper Bagger & V. Bhaskar & Tanya Wilson, 2022. "Marriage market equilibrium with matching on latent ability: Identification using a compulsory schooling expansion," Working Papers 2022_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure

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