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Fertility Shocks And Equilibrium Marriage‐Rate Dynamics


  • John Knowles
  • Guillaume Vandenbroucke


Female marriage probabilities were 50% higher in France in the years after World War 1, despite a large drop in the sex ratio. We develop a model of marital matching in which composition effects in the singles pool affect postdisruption matching rates. When calibrated to French data from World War 1, this mechanism explains 2/3 of the postwar rise in female marriage probabilities as the result of better composition of the pool of single men. We conclude that endogeneity issues make the sex ratio a potentially unreliable indicator of female marriage prospects.

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  • John Knowles & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2019. "Fertility Shocks And Equilibrium Marriage‐Rate Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1505-1537, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:60:y:2019:i:4:p:1505-1537
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12395

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    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen A. Kopecky, 2019. "The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 31, Economie d'Avant Garde.
    2. repec:cpr:ceprdp:14110 is not listed on IDEAS

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