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Left over or opting out? Squeeze, mismatch and surplus in Chinese marriage markets

Author

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  • Pauline Rossi

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

  • Yun Xiao

    (GU - Göteborgs Universitet = University of Gothenburg)

Abstract

Marriage is declining in China. Among singles, the probability to marry in 2019 was twice as low as in 1999. We estimate a Choo and Siow (2006b) model using census data to quantify the relative roles of changes in population structure and changes in marital surplus, i.e., value of marriage. We find that the increase in the supply of educated people explains half of the decline, partly due to a mismatch between educated women and less-educated men. The deterioration of female-to-male ratio, known as the marriage squeeze, explains an additional 18% for men. The decrease in surplus explains the rest.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauline Rossi & Yun Xiao, 2024. "Left over or opting out? Squeeze, mismatch and surplus in Chinese marriage markets," Working Papers hal-04675352, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04675352
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04675352v1
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Deng, Zichen & Luo, Weixiang & Plug, Erik & Yu, Jia, 2025. "The Relationship Between Earnings and Sexual Orientation: First Evidence from China," IZA Discussion Papers 18317, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Paula E. Gobbi & Anne Hannusch & Pauline Rossi, 2026. "Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 47-70, Winter.
    4. Lucie Giorgi & Eva Raiber, 2025. "For Better or for Babies: Fertility Constraints and Marriage in China," Working Papers hal-05273466, HAL.

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