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Large Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market for Famine Born Cohorts in China

Author

Listed:
  • Carl Vogel

    (NERA)

  • Aloysius Siow

    (University of Toronto)

  • Loren Brandt

    (University of Toronto)

Abstract

Between 1958 and 1961, China experienced one of its worst famines in history. Birth rates plummeted during these years, but recovered immediately afterwards. The famine-born cohorts were relatively scarce in the marriage and labor markets. The famine also adversely affected the health of these cohorts. This paper decomposes these two effects on the marital outcomes of the famine-born and adjacent cohorts in the rural areas of two hard hit provinces, Sichuan and Anhui. Individuals born pre and post-famine, who were in surplus relative to their customary spouses, were able to marry. Using the Choo Siow model of marriage matching, the paper shows that the famine substantially reduced the marital attractiveness of the famine born cohort. The modest decline in educational attainment of the famine born cohort does not explain the change in spousal quality of that cohort. Thus, the famine-born cohort, who were relatively scarce compared with their customary spouses, did not have significant above average marriage rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Vogel & Aloysius Siow & Loren Brandt, 2010. "Large Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market for Famine Born Cohorts in China," 2010 Meeting Papers 264, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:264
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    Cited by:

    1. Aloysius Siow, 2008. "How does the marriage market clear? An empirical framework," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(4), pages 1121-1155, November.
    2. Cheng, Yawen & Kong, Dongmin & Wang, Qin, 2023. "Parents' early experience and children's years of schooling: The long-term impact of son preference," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. McCann, Robert J. & Shi, Xianwen & Siow, Aloysius & Wolthoff, Ronald P., 2012. "Becker Meets Ricardo: Multisector Matching with Social and Cognitive Skills," IZA Discussion Papers 6533, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Decker, Colin & Lieb, Elliott H. & McCann, Robert J. & Stephens, Benjamin K., 2013. "Unique equilibria and substitution effects in a stochastic model of the marriage market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 778-792.
    5. Xianwen Shi & Ronald Wolthoff & Aloysius Siow & Robert McCann, 2012. "Becker meets Ricardo: A social and cognitive skills model of human capabilities," 2012 Meeting Papers 32, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Ana Maria Oviedo & Harry Moroz, 2013. "A Review of the Ex Post and Ex Ante Impacts of Risk," World Bank Publications - Reports 16333, The World Bank Group.
    7. Pudney, Stephen & Booker, Cara, 2013. "In sickness and in health? Comorbidity in older couples," ISER Working Paper Series 2013-30, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Bhaskar, Venkataraman, 2015. "The Demographic Transition and the Position of Women: A Marriage Market Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 10619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Wang, Xiaolu & Chen, Qihui & Zhu, Chen, 2022. "How Individual’s Early Hunger Experience Impacts Their Future Socioeconomic Status: Evidence from China," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322129, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Ren, Yanjun & Li, Hui & Wang, Xiaobing, 2019. "Family income and nutrition-related health: Evidence from food consumption in China," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 58-76.
    11. Alessie, R.; Angelini, V.; Mierau, J.O.; Viluma, L.;, 2017. "Economic Downturns and Babies’ Health," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 17/11, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    12. Tan, Chih Ming & Tan, Zhibo & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2014. "Sins of the fathers: The intergenerational legacy of the 1959-1961 Great Chinese Famine on children's cognitive development," IFPRI discussion papers 1351, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Maria Porter, 2016. "How do sex ratios in China influence marriage decisions and intra-household resource allocation?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 337-371, June.
    14. Chih Ming Tan & Zhibo Tan & Xiaobo Zhang, 2014. "Sins of the Father: The Intergenerational Legacy of the 1959-61 Great Chinese Famine on Children's Cognitive Development," Working Paper series 08_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. Jinkins, David, 2016. "Conspicuous consumption in the United States and China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 115-132.
    16. Scholte, Robert S. & van den Berg, Gerard J. & Lindeboom, Maarten, 2015. "Long-run effects of gestation during the Dutch Hunger Winter famine on labor market and hospitalization outcomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 17-30.
    17. Douglas Almond & Janet Currie, 2011. "Killing Me Softly: The Fetal Origins Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 153-172, Summer.
    18. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Gupta, Sumedha, 2015. "The role of marriage in the causal pathway from economic conditions early in life to mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 141-158.
    19. Xin Meng & Nancy Qian, 2009. "The Long Term Consequences of Famine on Survivors: Evidence from a Unique Natural Experiment using China's Great Famine," NBER Working Papers 14917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Tan, Chih Ming & Zhang, Xiaobo & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "The long-run and intergenerational impact of early exposure to the Great Chinese Famine of 1959–61 on mental health," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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