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Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries: Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration

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  • Holzmann, Robert

    () (University of New South Wales)

Abstract

The paper investigates the demographic alternatives for dealing with the projected population aging and low or negative growth of the population and labor force in the North. Without further immigration, the total labor force in Europe and Russia, the high-income countries of East Asia and the Pacific, China, and, to a lesser extent, North America is projected to be reduced by 29 million by 2025 and by 244 million by 2050. In contrast, the labor force in the South is projected to add some 1.55 billion, predominantly in South and Central Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic policy scenarios to deal with the projected shrinking of the labor force in the North include moving the total fertility rate back to replacement levels, increasing labor force participation of the existing population through a variety of measures, and filling the demographic gaps through enhanced immigration. The estimations indicate that each of these policy scenarios may partially or even fully compensate for the projected labor force gap by 2050. But a review of the policy measures to make these demographic scenarios happen also suggests that governments may not be able to initiate or accommodate the required change.

Suggested Citation

  • Holzmann, Robert, 2005. "Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries: Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 1885, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1885
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Holzmann, 2002. "Can Investments in Emerging Markets Help to Solve the Ageing Problem?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 1(2), pages 215-241, September.
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    10. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas K. Bauer & Deborah A. Cobb‐Clark & Vincent A. Hildebrand & Mathias G. Sinning, 2011. "A Comparative Analysis Of The Nativity Wealth Gap," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 989-1007, October.
    2. Thomas Y. Mathä & Alessandro Porpiglia & Eva Sierminska, 2011. "The Immigrant/Native Wealth Gap in Germany, Italy and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 57, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    3. Jacques Poot, 2007. "Demographic Change and Regional Competitiveness: The Effects of Immigration and Ageing," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-64, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.
    4. Thomas Gries & Stefan Jungblut & Tim Krieger & Henning Meier, 2009. "Statutory Retirement Age and Lifelong Learning," Working Papers CIE 9, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    5. McKenzie, David J., 2006. "A profile of the world's young developing country migrants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4021, The World Bank.
    6. Lamin Y Leigh, 2006. "Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; Macroeconomic Impact of an Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 06/87, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mukesh Chawla & Gordon Betcherman & Arup Banerji, 2007. "From Red to Gray : The "Third Transition" of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6741.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility rate; aging; demographic policy; labor force; migration;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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