Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries: Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration
The paper investigates the demographic alternatives for dealing with the projected population aging and low or negative growth of the population and labor force in the North. Without further immigration, the total labor force in Europe and Russia, the high-income countries of East Asia and the Pacific, China, and, to a lesser extent, North America is projected to be reduced by 29 million by 2025 and by 244 million by 2050. In contrast, the labor force in the South is projected to add some 1.55 billion, predominantly in South and Central Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic policy scenarios to deal with the projected shrinking of the labor force in the North include moving the total fertility rate back to replacement levels, increasing labor force participation of the existing population through a variety of measures, and filling the demographic gaps through enhanced immigration. The estimations indicate that each of these policy scenarios may partially or even fully compensate for the projected labor force gap by 2050. But a review of the policy measures to make these demographic scenarios happen also suggests that governments may not be able to initiate or accommodate the required change.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
|Order Information:|| Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004.
"The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
938, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1335-1357, July.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Munich Reprints in Economics 19606, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences Of A Demographic Transition," CAMA Working Papers 2006-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Meier, Volker & Wrede, Matthias, 2010.
"Pensions, fertility, and education,"
Journal of Pension Economics and Finance,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 75-93, January.
- Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert Holzmann, 2002.
"Can Investments in Emerging Markets Help to Solve the Ageing Problem?,"
Journal of Emerging Market Finance,
Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 1(2), pages 215-241, September.
- Robert Holzmann, 2000. "Can Investments in Emerging Markets Help to Solve the Aging Problem?," CESifo Working Paper Series 304, CESifo Group Munich.
- Holzmann, Robert, 2000. "Can investments in emerging markets help to solve the aging problem ?," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 23070, The World Bank.
- Anders Björklund, 2006. "Does family policy affect fertility?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, February.
- David Card, 2004.
"Is the New Immigration Really So Bad?,"
CReAM Discussion Paper Series
0402, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
- Holzmann, Robert & Koettl, Johannes & Chernetsky, Taras, 2005. "Portability regimes of pension and health care benefits for international migrants: an analysis of issues and good practices," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 32750, The World Bank.
- Commander, Simon & Kangasniemi, Mari & Winters, L. Alan, 2003. "The Brain Drain: Curse or Boon?," IZA Discussion Papers 809, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
- Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 92-134, January.
- Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
- Stephen Drinkwater & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Joseph Pearlman, 2003. "The Economic Impact of Migration: A Survey," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0103, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Robert Holzmann & Richard Hinz, 2005. "Old Age Income Support in the 21st century: An International Perspective on Pension Systems and Reform," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7336.
- Holzmann, Robert & Munz, Rainer, 2004. "Challenges and opportunities of international migration for the EU, its member states, neighboring countries, and regions : a Policy Note," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 30160, The World Bank.
- Samuel Munzele Maimbo & Dilip Ratha, 2005. "Remittances: Development Impact and Future Prospects," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7339.
- Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1885. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.